AS Trencin 0–5 FK Košice
Final score · Half-time 0–3 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, FK Košice was the most likely outcome at 46% (fair odds 2.15). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — AS Trencin: LDWLL; FK Košice: LDDDW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 2' 0–1 M. Madlenak · goal · assist A. Maras · FK Košice
- 5' 0–2 M. Rehus · goal · assist A. Maras · FK Košice
- 9' Eynel Soares · missed penalty · AS Trencin
- 18' 0–3 M. Sovic · goal · assist M. Rehus · FK Košice
- 21' N. Jovanovic · yellow card · AS Trencin
- 33' C. Ansah · yellow card · AS Trencin
- 53' 0–4 O. Kakay · goal · assist M. Madlenak · FK Košice
- 69' 0–5 A. Kahvic · goal · FK Košice
- 78' D. Magda · yellow card · FK Košice
What the market said before kick-off
- AS Trencin win 30% did not happen
- Draw 24% did not happen
- FK Košice win 46% happened
- Over 2.5 goals 66% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
AS Trencin
- 1 A. Katic
- 2 N. Jovanovic
- 33 R. Krizan
- 29 L. Bessile
- 25 L. Skovajsa
- 18 M. Poom
- 14 R. Sanusi
- 8 T. Hajovsky
- 16 C. Ansah
- 7 Eynel Soares
- 21 L. Mikulaj
Bench: M. Slavicek, J. Mulder, H. Pavek, D. Jepihhin, F. Kasana, D. Kam, F. Slovak
Coach: Marek Danovsky
FK Košice
- 22 M. Kira
- 29 O. Kakay
- 21 D. Magda
- 31 T. Moore
- 66 B. Damjanovic
- 23 M. Madlenak
- 77 M. Rehus
- 6 F. Lichy
- 8 D. Gallovic
- 15 M. Sovic
- 99 A. Maras
Bench: F. Kalanin, L. Lukacevic, T. Durko, M. Dimun, K. Palumets, M. Mateas, T. Seguchi, A. Kahvic, M. Rabatin
Coach: Peter Cernak
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 31% | 23% | 46% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 34% | 23% | 43% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
AS Trencin averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; FK Košice averaged 1.2 and 1.0 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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