Budapest Honved 1–0 Kisvarda FC
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Budapest Honved was the most likely outcome at 46% (fair odds 2.18). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Budapest Honved: LWDLL; Kisvarda FC: DDDLW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 3' 1–0 Dominik Soltész (own goal) · Budapest Honved
- 15' Hianga'a M'Bock · yellow card · Kisvarda FC
- 27' Amos Youga · yellow card · Kisvarda FC
- 46' Csontos Dominik Zoltan · yellow card · Budapest Honved
- 77' Dominik Soltész · yellow card · Kisvarda FC
- 90' Á Ésik · yellow card · Kisvarda FC
Match stats
| Match stats | Budapest Honved | Kisvarda FC |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 54 | 46 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| Shots | 12 | 9 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 2 |
| Corners | 3 | 2 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 14 | 17 |
| Offsides | 2 | 3 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 3 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Budapest Honved win 45% happened
- Draw 27% did not happen
- Kisvarda FC win 28% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 52% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Budapest Honved 4-1-4-1
- 31 O. Hadžikić GK
- 5 D. Csontos DF
- 44 Á. Baki DF
- 4 A. Szabó DF
- 52 D. Boldor DF
- 99 I. Pekár MF
- 17 P. Pinte MF
- 30 T. Somogyi MF
- 40 Adam Szamosi MF
- 3 P. Garcia MF
- 45 Alberto Marí FW
Bench: Bonifac Csonka, G. Dúzs, R. Eddarraj, S. Hangya, B. Pauljević, Áron Russnák, K. Kantor, P. Garcia, A. Alić, O. Safronov, T. Tujvel, A. Zuigeber
Coach: M. Jacobacci
Regular starters not in the XI
- S. Hangya — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
Kisvarda FC 4-4-2
- 23 I. Popovich GK
- 55 K. Nagy DF
- 42 T. Lippai DF
- 25 B. Šerbečić DF
- 10 D. Soltész DF
- 29 B. Bíró MF
- 80 H. Mbock MF
- 22 A. Youga MF
- 37 Miroslav Babjak MF
- 99 T. Yordanov FW
- 14 B. Melnyk FW
Bench: J. Mešanović, M. Kovács, K. Körmendi, S. Novothny, M. Chlumecký, Maxim Osztrovka, L. Szőr, Ákos Ésik, T. A. Balogun, C. Herc
Coach: A. Supka
Regular starters not in the XI
- C. Herc — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 45 / 27 / 28% when the line-ups came out, 45 / 27 / 28% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 46% | 26% | 28% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 52% | 27% | 21% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Budapest Honved averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Kisvarda FC averaged 1.0 and 1.0 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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