The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check · Not checked yet
Value check
No fresh sharp price right now, so we make no value call.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|
Other estimates
| Our model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Team stats: recent matches
Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Karpaty at home, Kudrivka away.
| Team statistics, recent matches | Karpaty | Kudrivka |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.70 (1.90) | 1.10 (1.00) |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.80 (0.70) | 2.40 (2.40) |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% (60%) | 80% (70%) |
| Both teams scored | 50% (40%) | 70% (80%) |
| Clean sheets | 40% (60%) | 20% (10%) |
| Failed to score | 20% (10%) | 30% (20%) |
| Corners for / against per game | 5.67 / 2.67 | 4.33 / 7.67 |
| Cards per game | 3.33 | 2.67 |
From 10 matches for Karpaty and 10 for Kudrivka. xG, corners and cards: 3 and 3 matches with statistics.
Match context
Karpaty averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Kudrivka averaged 1.8 and 2.2 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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