Karpaty 5–0 Kudrivka
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · Today's results so far
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Karpaty was the most likely outcome at 70% (fair odds 1.43). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Karpaty: DDLDW; Kudrivka: LWLLL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 42' Maksym Melnychuk · yellow card · Kudrivka
- 48' Ivan Calero · yellow card · Karpaty
- 50' 1–0 Yan Kostenko · goal · assist Roman Vantukh · Karpaty
- 54' 2–0 Yan Kostenko · goal · assist Xeber Alkain Mitxelena · Karpaty
- 56' Bogdan Veklyak · yellow card · Kudrivka
- 73' 3–0 Yan Kostenko · goal · assist Roman Vantukh · Karpaty
- 80' 4–0 Ambrosiy Chachua · goal · assist Yaroslav Karabin · Karpaty
- 87' 5–0 Volodymyr Antoniuk · goal · assist Denys Miroshnichenko · Karpaty
- 89' Artur Dumanyuk · yellow card · Kudrivka
Match stats
| Match stats | Karpaty | Kudrivka |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 52 | 48 |
| Shots | 14 | 5 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 1 |
| Corners | 6 | 1 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
Provisional stats from the final whistle; the final numbers replace them within a day.
What the market said before kick-off
- Karpaty win 68% happened
- Draw 19% did not happen
- Kudrivka win 13% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Karpaty 4-1-4-1
- 80 R. Mysak GK
- 14 Iván Calero DF
- 4 V. Baboglo DF
- 55 T. Stetskov DF
- 73 R. Lyakh DF
- 10 Moha MF
- 70 Xeber Alkain MF
- 8 A. Chachua MF
- 31 N. Rusyn MF
- 17 R. Vantukh MF
- 26 Y. Kostenko FW
Bench: D. Marchenko, E. Kalinets, V. Kholod, D. Miroshnichenko, Bruno Iglesias, Joaquinete, Y. Karabin, J. Séry, Fellipe Vieira, A. Zhylkin, O. Dyedov, Volodymyr Antoniuk
Coach: Fran Fernández
Regular starters not in the XI
- Jean Pedroso — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
- Fellipe Vieira Cardoso — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- Joseph Sery — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Kudrivka 4-4-2
- 37 A. Yashkov GK
- 17 M. Serdyuk DF
- 22 B. Veklyak DF
- 50 D. Semenov DF
- 91 M. Melnychuk DF
- 42 Y. Pasich MF
- 8 Y. Smyrnyi MF
- 14 K. Makosso MF
- 21 O. Belyaev MF
- 10 R. Plaksa FW
- 24 R. Owusu FW
Bench: K. Sigeev, D. Svityukha, R. Verley, M. Vechurko, K. Bychek, S. Sten, O. Yushchenko, A. Dumanyuk, K. Lavuta, D. Yesin, Anton Demchenko, V. Gromskyi
Coach: Yevgen Zadorozhniy
Regular starters not in the XI
- Artur Dumanyuk — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- Ivan Petryak — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 68 / 19 / 13% when the line-ups came out, 68 / 19 / 13% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 70% | 18% | 12% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Karpaty averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Kudrivka averaged 1.8 and 2.2 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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