Ballkani 3–2 GAP Connah S Quay FC
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · Latest results
No sharp market price was available for this match. Our own model made Ballkani the most likely outcome at 44%; we made no value call without a sharp benchmark. Recent form — Ballkani: DLWDW; GAP Connah S Quay FC: DLWLD.
After the whistle
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Ballkani 4-3-3
- Adnan Golubović GK
- Abou Dosso DF
- Gentrit Halili DF
- Ivica Batarelo DF
- Diar Vokrri DF
- Edvin Kuč MF
- Giovanni MF
- Anel Šabanadžović MF
- Engjell Ajazaj MF
- Valentin Serebe FW
- Almedin Klinaku MF
GAP Connah S Quay FC 4-3-3
- Chris Renshaw GK
- Michael Stone MF
- Dan Cowan DF
- Frankie Deane MF
- Shane Flynn DF
- Joe Ferguson DF
- James Jones DF
- Abdi Sharif MF
- Iwan Murray MF
- Harry Franklin FW
- Callum West MF
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|
Other estimates
| Our model | 44% | 29% | 26% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Ballkani averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; GAP Connah S Quay FC averaged 0.6 and 1.0 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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