Sigma Olomouc 3–0 Zbrojovka Brno
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Sigma Olomouc was the most likely outcome at 52% (fair odds 1.91). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Sigma Olomouc: DWDLW; Zbrojovka Brno: DWLLW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 3' Leonardo Borges · yellow card · Sigma Olomouc
- 21' 1–0 Vaclav Sejk · goal · assist Péter Baráth · Sigma Olomouc
- 36' Jakub Pokorný · yellow card · Zbrojovka Brno
- 47' Kauan Carneiro da Silva · yellow card · Zbrojovka Brno
- 53' Filip Vedral · yellow card · Zbrojovka Brno
- 58' 2–0 Marko Soldo · goal · assist Ahmad Ghali Abubakar · Sigma Olomouc
- 74' Vaclav Sejk · disallowed by VAR · Sigma Olomouc
- 76' 3–0 Vaclav Sejk (pen.) · Sigma Olomouc
Match stats
| Match stats | Sigma Olomouc | Zbrojovka Brno |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 62 | 38 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 3.22 | 0.40 |
| Shots | 24 | 5 |
| Shots on target | 10 | 0 |
| Corners | 10 | 7 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 10 | 12 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 0 | 7 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Sigma Olomouc win 51% happened
- Draw 25% did not happen
- Zbrojovka Brno win 24% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 53% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Sigma Olomouc 3-4-3
- 91 Jan Koutný GK
- 4 Léo Borges DF
- 33 M. Malý DF
- 3 L. Lurvink DF
- 70 A. Ghali MF
- 88 P. Baráth MF
- 7 M. Beran MF
- 29 A. Ekeroth MF
- 39 D. Janošek FW
- 10 V. Sejk FW
- 14 M. Soldo FW
Bench: D. Tkáč, F. Slavíček, A. Pavlešić, H. Mikaelsson, J. Kliment, N. Jadrnicek, T. Huk, M. Hruška, J. Dembe, I. Brzyski, Jiří Pšenica
Coach: P. Hapal
Regular starters not in the XI
- A. Sylla — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
Zbrojovka Brno 3-4-3
- 1 A. Hrdina GK
- 39 J. Klíma DF
- 26 F. Vedral DF
- 38 J. Pokorný DF
- 6 Lukáš Penxa MF
- 7 Š. Langer MF
- 8 P. Čavoš MF
- 44 A. Danté MF
- 14 T. Vachoušek FW
- 15 D. Vašulín FW
- 10 A. Vaníček FW
Bench: S. Afolabi, P. Ševčík, M. Rymarenko, O. Prodelal, B. Kanakimana, Kauan Carneiro Kaka, J. Janetzký, D. Granečný, L. Ezeh, T. Břečka, P. Žitný
Coach: M. Svědík
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 51 / 25 / 24% when the line-ups came out, 51 / 25 / 24% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 52% | 25% | 23% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 32% | 27% | 41% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Sigma Olomouc averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Zbrojovka Brno averaged 1.2 and 1.4 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
Measured by TipsAudit
- Most accurate football prediction site? Ranked against the closing line
- 100% sure football predictions? How often favourites really win
- Accumulator tips today, with the real chance it wins
- Is Statarea accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is WinDrawWin accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is ProSoccer.gr accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Independent tipster audit: verified track records
- How to check if a tipster is legit
- Can you verify a Telegram tipster? What we found reading their tips
- Are free football prediction sites accurate? We measure them in public
- Which bookmaker has the lowest margin? Live index
- Free value bet finder for football
- What is closing line value (CLV)?
- Free football predictions dataset with closing odds (CSV)
- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included
