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Real Betis vs Malaga

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The sharp market makes Real Betis the most likely outcome at 71% — fair odds of 1.40. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Real Betis: DWLWW; Malaga: DLDLL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · Not re-checked · Flag recorded 24 Oct: 1 · Real Betis at +3.4%

Value check

Not re-checked

A gap of +4.0% on 1 was seen on a price that has not been re-read in the last 90 minutes, so we do not flag it: it may no longer be on offer. Price last seen

Betting on Real Betis anyway? The best price we see is 1.46 at 1xBet, +4.0% against the fair odds of 1.40. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

1 Home win 71%
1X2
Sharp now71%17%12%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded71%17%12%
Our model72%16%12%
Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.41
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.38 / 5.32 / 7.02

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick now 1.40
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.46 / 5.63 / 8.00
Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 37 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 1.405.978.34
Pinnacle sharp 1.38 5.47 7.52
1xBet 1.46 ★ 5.24 7.19
BetOnline.ag 1.38 5.63 ★ 7.44
BetVictor 1.36 4.75 7.00
Betano (UK) UK-only 1.36 4.75 7.00
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only 1.36 5.00 8.00 ★
Marathonbet 1.42 5.10 7.00
Unibet (NL) 1.38 5.40 8.00 ★
Show all 37 bookmakers
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 1.40 5.40 8.20
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 1.40 5.40 8.20
Smarkets exchange 1.40 5.50 8.20
Betclic (FR) 1.32 4.85 6.50
Betsson 1.37 5.10 7.70
Betway UK-only 1.35 5.25 6.50
BoyleSports UK-only 1.36 4.75 6.50
Casumo UK-only 1.38 5.20 7.50
Codere (IT) 1.39 5.20 7.20
Coolbet 1.38 5.50 7.50
Coral UK-only 1.40 5.00 7.00
Everygame 1.35 5.00 6.75
Grosvenor UK-only 1.36 5.10 7.00
Ladbrokes UK-only 1.40 5.00 7.00
LeoVegas UK-only 1.35 5.20 6.75
LeoVegas (SE) 1.36 4.90 6.75
LiveScore Bet UK-only 1.36 4.90 6.75
Nordic Bet 1.36 5.05 7.60
PMU (FR) 1.32 4.70 6.50
Paddy Power UK-only 1.33 5.00 7.50
Sky Bet UK-only 1.36 5.00 7.50
Tipico 1.33 5.50 7.80
Unibet (FR) 1.31 4.70 6.40
Unibet (SE) 1.40 5.40 7.50
Unibet (UK) UK-only 1.37 5.25 7.00
Virgin Bet UK-only 1.34 4.80 6.75
William Hill 1.36 4.80 6.50
Winamax (DE) 1.35 5.40 6.75
Winamax (FR) 1.32 5.10 6.25

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
2.5 64% fair 1.56 best 1.55 · Betano 36% fair 2.79 best 2.62 · Bet365
3.5 41% fair 2.46 best 2.42 · 1xBet 59% fair 1.69 best 1.66 · 1xBet
All lines (9)
Line OverUnder
2 1.24 fair best 1.22 · 1xBet 5.13 fair best 4.04 · 1xBet
2.25 1.40 fair best 1.37 · 1xBet 3.49 fair best 2.94 · 1xBet
2.5 64% fair 1.56 best 1.55 · Betano 36% fair 2.79 best 2.62 · Bet365
2.75 1.69 fair best 1.66 · 1xBet 2.46 fair best 2.35 · SBO
3 1.88 fair best 1.86 · 1xBet 2.13 fair best 2.04 · SBO
3.25 2.17 fair best 2.16 · 1xBet 1.85 fair best 1.81 · 1xBet
3.5 41% fair 2.46 best 2.42 · 1xBet 59% fair 1.69 best 1.66 · 1xBet
3.75 2.89 fair best 2.71 · 1xBet 1.53 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet
4 3.70 fair best 3.38 · 1xBet 1.37 fair best 1.38 · Betano

Double chance
1X12X2
88% fair 1.14 best 1.12 · 1xBet 83% fair 1.20 best 1.20 · 1xBet 29% fair 3.48 best 3.05 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line Real BetisMalaga
−1.75 2.52 fair best 2.51 · 1xBet 1.66 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet
−1.5 46% fair 2.16 best 2.18 · 1xBet 54% fair 1.86 best 1.82 · Betano
−1.25 1.89 fair best 1.89 · 1xBet 2.12 fair best 2.07 · SBO
−1 1.62 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet 2.61 fair best 2.42 · Betano
−0.75 1.49 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet 3.04 fair best 2.68 · Bet365
All lines (9)
Line Real BetisMalaga
−2.25 3.65 fair best 3.31 · 1xBet 1.38 fair best 1.35 · Bet365
−2 3.17 fair best 2.98 · 1xBet 1.46 fair best 1.45 · Betano
−1.75 2.52 fair best 2.51 · 1xBet 1.66 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet
−1.5 46% fair 2.16 best 2.18 · 1xBet 54% fair 1.86 best 1.82 · Betano
−1.25 1.89 fair best 1.89 · 1xBet 2.12 fair best 2.07 · SBO
−1 1.62 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet 2.61 fair best 2.42 · Betano
−0.75 1.49 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet 3.04 fair best 2.68 · Bet365
−0.5 71% fair 1.40 best 1.40 · Betano 29% fair 3.51 best 3.05 · Betano
−0.25 1.28 fair best 1.26 · 1xBet 4.56 fair best 3.80 · BetVictor

Goals by team

Real Betis goals

Line OverUnder
2.5 41% fair 2.44 best 2.31 · Marathonbet 59% fair 1.70 best 1.62 · Bet365
All lines (3)
Line OverUnder
1.5 70% fair 1.43 best 1.43 · Marathonbet 30% fair 3.32 best 2.88 · BetVictor
2.5 41% fair 2.44 best 2.31 · Marathonbet 59% fair 1.70 best 1.62 · Bet365
3.5 19% fair 5.27 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook 81% fair 1.23 best 1.23 · Betano

Malaga goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 60% fair 1.65 best 1.60 · Betano 40% fair 2.53 best 2.30 · BetVictor
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 60% fair 1.65 best 1.60 · Betano 40% fair 2.53 best 2.30 · BetVictor
1.5 22% fair 4.59 best 4.00 · Betfair Sportsbook 78% fair 1.28 best 1.27 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1X2
53% fair 1.89 best 1.85 · 1xBet 34% fair 2.93 best 2.62 · 1xBet 13% fair 7.67 best 6.50 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.25 1.98 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet 2.02 fair best 1.96 · SBO
1.5 41% fair 2.42 best 2.31 · SBO 59% fair 1.70 best 1.64 · 1xBet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.75 1.38 fair best 1.34 · BetVictor 3.66 fair best 3.05 · 1xBet
1 1.55 fair best 1.55 · Betano 2.82 fair best 2.50 · 1xBet
1.25 1.98 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet 2.02 fair best 1.96 · SBO
1.5 41% fair 2.42 best 2.31 · SBO 59% fair 1.70 best 1.64 · 1xBet
1.75 3.07 fair best 2.72 · 1xBet 1.48 fair best 1.44 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 2–010.7%fair 9.31
  2. 2–19.5%fair 10.51
  3. 1–09.0%fair 11.17
  4. 3–08.7%fair 11.55
  5. 1–17.8%fair 12.85
  6. 3–17.7%fair 13.03

Total goals

  • 04%
  • 112%
  • 220%
  • 322%
  • 4+42%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Real Betis at home, Malaga away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesReal BetisMalaga
Goals scored per game 1.90 (2.10) 0.70 (1.50)
Goals conceded per game 1.30 (1.10) 1.90 (1.30)
Over 2.5 goals 50% (60%) 30% (40%)
Both teams scored 60% (50%) 60% (50%)
Clean sheets 40% (50%) 10% (20%)
Failed to score 10% (0%) 40% (30%)
xG for / against per game 1.78 / 1.58 0.84 / 1.71
Corners for / against per game 4.70 / 5.30 5.20 / 5.10
Cards per game 2.00 2.30

Over 2.5 goals: Real Betis in 50% and Malaga in 30% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 64% for this match.

From 10 matches for Real Betis and 10 for Malaga. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle

Detected ·
1 Real Betis · soft 1.46 (1xBet) · fair 1.41 · edge +3.4%
Opening sharp
1.38

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Real Betis averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Malaga averaged 1.0 and 2.2 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Real Betis is averaging 2.2 goals scored over its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Real Betis here.
Malaga is winless in its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Malaga here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Real Betis
D W L W W
avg 2.2 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)
Malaga
D L D L L
avg 1 scored · 2.2 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.38
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Real Betis
Odds when flagged 1.46
Fair odds 1.41
Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending
Value CLV —
Profit (units) —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 55b19b125bb71b88

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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