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La Liga predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every La Liga fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)
How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated at

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time Match 1X2 Value
SevillaAlaves
 50% 2.05 fair 1.98 27% 3.50 fair 3.66 22% 4.40 fair 4.49 Not re-checked
MalagaRacing Santander
 40% 2.48 fair 2.51 27% 3.75 fair 3.73 33% 2.95 fair 2.99 No value
EspanyolDeportivo La Coruna
 44% 2.30 fair 2.29 28% 3.55 fair 3.60 29% 3.45 fair 3.50 Value expired
OsasunaAthletic Club
 29% 3.52 fair 3.48 28% 3.52 fair 3.51 43% 2.35 fair 2.34 Not re-checked
ValenciaReal Madrid
 11% 9.50 fair 9.05 14% 6.50 fair 7.04 75% 1.36 fair 1.34 Not re-checked
ElcheReal Betis
 30% 3.39 fair 3.33 25% 3.85 fair 4.04 45% 2.20 fair 2.21 Value expired
Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
 57% 1.76 fair 1.75 23% 4.20 fair 4.37 20% 4.88 fair 4.97 Value expired
Celta VigoLevante
 55% 1.86 fair 1.83 23% 4.00 fair 4.28 22% 4.52 fair 4.57 Not re-checked
VillarrealGetafe
 66% 1.53 fair 1.50 20% 4.60 fair 4.91 13% 7.50 fair 7.58 Not re-checked
Atletico MadridBarcelona
 25% 3.90 fair 4.06 22% 4.36 fair 4.54 53% 1.92 fair 1.88 Not re-checked

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

DateMatchScoreMarket gave this result
Deportivo La Coruna – Osasuna 2–1 —
Athletic Club – Real Sociedad 2–1 48%
Elche – Valencia 0–1 28%
Racing Santander – Real Madrid 0–3 82%
Getafe – Sevilla 3–1 25%
Barcelona – Alaves 6–1 90%
Real Betis – Malaga 2–1 73%
Rayo Vallecano – Celta Vigo 3–0 40%
Levante – Atletico Madrid 0–2 66%
Villarreal – Espanyol 0–1 12%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on La Liga

Across the matches we priced in La Liga, the market's average 1X2 margin is 5.98%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is 1xBet at 2.41%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

1xBet → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of . We read it again after matches finish.

# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 11 10 0 1 46 12 +34 30
2 Atletico Madrid 11 9 1 1 22 8 +14 28
3 Real Madrid 11 9 0 2 28 10 +18 27
4 Real Betis 11 7 2 2 18 15 +3 23
5 Real Sociedad 11 6 1 4 20 20 +0 19
6 Sevilla 11 5 2 4 17 19 -2 17
7 Athletic Club 10 4 3 3 14 10 +4 15
8 Villarreal 11 3 3 5 15 15 +0 12
9 Celta Vigo 11 2 6 3 10 10 +0 12
10 Alaves 11 3 3 5 15 17 -2 12
11 Rayo Vallecano 10 3 3 4 15 20 -5 12
12 Getafe 11 3 3 5 8 16 -8 12
13 Deportivo La Coruna 10 2 5 3 13 13 +0 11
14 Espanyol 11 3 2 6 13 14 -1 11
15 Osasuna 10 3 2 5 10 20 -10 11
16 Racing Santander 11 3 2 6 15 29 -14 11
17 Elche 11 2 4 5 14 18 -4 10
18 Levante 11 2 4 5 16 21 -5 10
19 Valencia 11 2 3 6 8 17 -9 9
20 Malaga 11 0 5 6 8 21 -13 5

Top scorers — 2026/27 · updated 2 Nov 2026

# Player Team Goals Assists
1 Raphinha Barcelona 15 3
2 Kylian Mbappé Real Madrid 11 2
3 Lamine Yamal Barcelona 10 7
4 M. Zabiri Racing Santander 8 0
5 Sergio Camello Rayo Vallecano 7 2

Top scorers, assists and cards →

Team stats this season

108 matches this season: 3.01 goals per game, 57% over 2.5, 57% both teams scored. xG 2.92 per match (from 108 matches); 9.7 corners and 4.7 cards per match (from 108 matches with statistics).

TeamMPGFGA Over 2.5BTTSClean sheets xG for / against CornersCards
Barcelona 114.181.09 91%64%36% 3.46 / 1.04 9.71.6
Real Madrid 112.550.91 82%64%27% 2.52 / 1.05 10.42.2
Real Sociedad 111.821.82 82%73%9% 1.47 / 1.67 11.42.4
Racing Santander 111.362.64 82%64%0% 1.41 / 2.24 12.62.7
Rayo Vallecano 101.502.00 70%80%10% 1.39 / 1.70 10.92.7
Atletico Madrid 112.000.73 64%36%55% 1.61 / 1.11 8.82.3
Sevilla 111.551.73 64%73%27% 1.03 / 1.43 6.63.2
Levante 111.451.91 64%64%18% 1.36 / 1.94 8.51.4
Villarreal 111.361.36 64%64%9% 1.96 / 1.10 11.72.1
Alaves 111.361.55 55%64%27% 1.25 / 1.36 8.71.9
Elche 111.271.64 55%55%27% 1.25 / 1.75 8.82.6
Espanyol 111.181.27 55%64%27% 1.02 / 1.37 8.53.2
Athletic Club 101.401.00 50%40%50% 1.60 / 1.27 10.52.1
Real Betis 111.641.36 46%55%46% 1.59 / 1.78 11.01.7
Valencia 110.731.55 46%36%36% 1.04 / 1.49 9.02.4
Osasuna 101.002.00 40%40%30% 1.45 / 1.41 8.72.6
Celta Vigo 110.910.91 36%36%46% 0.96 / 1.19 7.41.8
Getafe 110.731.45 36%36%18% 0.69 / 1.36 9.34.0
Malaga 110.731.91 36%64%9% 0.88 / 1.69 10.62.3
Deportivo La Coruna 101.301.30 30%80%0% 1.19 / 1.19 10.32.2

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best La Liga predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for La Liga is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every La Liga fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer La Liga betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each La Liga match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit

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