Primeira Liga Sat, 31 Oct 2026 · 20:30 UTC

FC Porto vs Estoril

Fair price as of 16:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 20:05 UTC
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Most likely: FC Porto 83%
Over 2.5 goals: 64%

The betting exchange makes FC Porto the most likely outcome at 83% — fair odds of 1.21. We judge value only against Pinnacle's price, which we do not have for this match yet, so we make no value call. Recent form — FC Porto: WLLWW; Estoril: LDLLL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · Not checked yet

Value check

Not checked yet

No fresh sharp price right now, so we make no value call.

Betting on FC Porto anyway? The best price we see is 1.25 at Coral, +3.1% against the fair odds of 1.21. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

1 Home win 83%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	83%	12%	6%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	83%	11%	6%
Our model	82%	13%	5%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.20

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.18 / 7.26 / 12.45

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 1 hour ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.21

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.24 / 7.50 / 15.00

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 35 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	1.21	8.44	17.86
888sport	1.22	6.00	10.00
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	1.15	7.00	15.00 ★
Betway UK-only	1.22	6.00	9.00
BoyleSports UK-only	1.22	5.50	11.00
Casumo UK-only	1.22	6.40	12.50
Coral UK-only	1.25 ★	6.50	11.00
Paddy Power UK-only	1.14	7.00	15.00 ★
Tipico	1.15	7.50 ★	15.00 ★

Show all 35 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	1.20	7.60	15.50
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	1.20	7.60	15.50
Smarkets exchange	1.18	7.20	14.99
BetOnline.ag	1.20	6.75	10.50
BetVictor	1.20	5.75	11.00
Betano (UK) UK-only	1.20	5.75	11.00
Betclic (FR)	1.16	6.00	10.50
Betfred (UK) UK-only	1.20	6.00	11.00
Betsson	1.19	6.10	12.50
Coolbet	1.23	6.25	13.00
GTbets	1.24	6.57	11.00
Grosvenor UK-only	1.22	6.40	12.50
Ladbrokes UK-only	1.22	6.50	11.00
LeoVegas (SE)	1.18	5.80	11.00
LiveScore Bet UK-only	1.20	6.00	11.00
Marathonbet	1.23	6.10	10.25
Nordic Bet	1.19	6.10	12.50
PMU (FR)	1.16	5.80	11.00
Sky Bet UK-only	1.14	6.25	11.00
Unibet (FR)	1.13	5.70	10.00
Unibet (NL)	1.18	6.00	11.00
Unibet (SE)	1.18	6.00	11.00
Unibet (UK) UK-only	1.22	6.50	12.00
Virgin Bet UK-only	1.22	6.40	12.50
William Hill	1.22	6.00	10.00
Winamax (DE)	1.18	6.25	9.50
Winamax (FR)	1.17	5.90	9.00

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 02:30 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	85% fair 1.18 best 1.18 · Betano	15% fair 6.47 best 5.50 · BetVictor
2.5	64% fair 1.56 best 1.55 · Betano	36% fair 2.77 best 2.67 · 1xBet
3.5	41% fair 2.45 best 2.35 · Betano	59% fair 1.69 best 1.74 · 1xBet

All lines (10)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	85% fair 1.18 best 1.18 · Betano	15% fair 6.47 best 5.50 · BetVictor
2.5	64% fair 1.56 best 1.55 · Betano	36% fair 2.77 best 2.67 · 1xBet
2.75	1.69 fair best 1.56 · 1xBet	2.45 fair best 2.40 · 1xBet
3	1.89 fair best 1.85 · Betano	2.12 fair best 2.16 · 1xBet
3.25	2.16 fair best 1.96 · 1xBet	1.86 fair best 1.92 · 1xBet
3.5	41% fair 2.45 best 2.35 · Betano	59% fair 1.69 best 1.74 · 1xBet
3.75	2.84 fair best 2.43 · 1xBet	1.54 fair best 1.56 · 1xBet
4	2.54 fair best 2.81 · BetVictor	1.65 fair best 1.36 · BetVictor
4.5	22% fair 4.61 best 4.00 · Bet365	78% fair 1.28 best 1.30 · 1xBet
5.5	15% fair 6.83 best 7.00 · BetVictor	85% fair 1.17 best 1.10 · 1xBet

Double chance

1X	12	X2
94% fair 1.06 best 1.06 · BetVictor	88% fair 1.13 best 1.14 · William Hill	17% fair 5.73 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	FC Porto	Estoril
−2.25	2.71 fair best 2.44 · 1xBet	1.59 fair best 1.58 · Bet365
−2	2.32 fair best 2.18 · 1xBet	1.76 fair best 1.75 · Bet365
−1.75	1.95 fair best 1.94 · 1xBet	2.05 fair best 2.06 · SBO
−1.5	57% fair 1.74 best 1.77 · 1xBet	43% fair 2.35 best 2.25 · Betfair Sportsbook
−1.25	1.52 fair best 1.55 · 1xBet	2.91 fair best 2.60 · Bet365

All lines (11)

Line	FC Porto	Estoril
−3	4.26 fair best 4.03 · 1xBet	1.31 fair best 1.24 · Bet365
−2.75	3.90 fair best 3.14 · 1xBet	1.34 fair best 1.35 · Bet365
−2.5	32% fair 3.10 best 2.67 · 1xBet	68% fair 1.48 best 1.50 · Betano
−2.25	2.71 fair best 2.44 · 1xBet	1.59 fair best 1.58 · Bet365
−2	2.32 fair best 2.18 · 1xBet	1.76 fair best 1.75 · Bet365
−1.75	1.95 fair best 1.94 · 1xBet	2.05 fair best 2.06 · SBO
−1.5	57% fair 1.74 best 1.77 · 1xBet	43% fair 2.35 best 2.25 · Betfair Sportsbook
−1.25	1.52 fair best 1.55 · 1xBet	2.91 fair best 2.60 · Bet365
−1	1.33 fair best 1.39 · Betano	4.02 fair best 3.45 · Bet365
−0.75	1.27 fair best 1.32 · BetVictor	4.68 fair best 3.70 · Bet365
−0.5	77% fair 1.30 best 1.22 · Bet365	23% fair 4.38 best 4.15 · Bet365

Goals by team

FC Porto goals

Line	Over	Under
2.5	47% fair 2.12 best 1.95 · Betano	53% fair 1.89 best 1.85 · Marathonbet

All lines (3)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	76% fair 1.32 best 1.32 · Betano	24% fair 4.11 best 3.50 · BetVictor
2.5	47% fair 2.12 best 1.95 · Betano	53% fair 1.89 best 1.85 · Marathonbet
3.5	23% fair 4.35 best 3.50 · Bet365	77% fair 1.30 best 1.33 · Betfair Sportsbook

Estoril goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	50% fair 2.02 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook	50% fair 1.98 best 2.02 · Marathonbet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
61% fair 1.64 best 1.62 · William Hill	30% fair 3.31 best 2.88 · Bet365	9% fair 11.31 best 10.00 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	1.96 fair best 1.86 · SBO	2.04 fair best 2.00 · 1xBet
1.5	41% fair 2.45 best 2.22 · Betano	59% fair 1.69 best 1.71 · 1xBet

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.33 fair best 1.33 · BetVictor	4.01 fair best 3.32 · 1xBet
1	1.50 fair best 1.50 · Betano	2.99 fair best 2.75 · 1xBet
1.25	1.96 fair best 1.86 · SBO	2.04 fair best 2.00 · 1xBet
1.5	41% fair 2.45 best 2.22 · Betano	59% fair 1.69 best 1.71 · 1xBet
1.75	3.20 fair best 2.47 · BetVictor	1.45 fair best 1.49 · 1xBet
2	3.55 fair best 3.25 · Betano	1.39 fair best 1.34 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: FC Porto at home, Estoril away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	FC Porto	Estoril
Goals scored per game	1.90 (1.30)	0.60 (0.80)
Goals conceded per game	1.00 (0.50)	1.60 (1.40)
Over 2.5 goals	60% (20%)	40% (30%)
Both teams scored	50% (20%)	60% (60%)
Clean sheets	30% (60%)	10% (10%)
Failed to score	20% (30%)	40% (30%)
xG for / against per game	1.73 / 1.11	1.08 / 1.43
Corners for / against per game	5.40 / 3.00	5.00 / 4.56
Cards per game	1.30	2.44

Over 2.5 goals: FC Porto in 60% and Estoril in 40% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 64% for this match.

From 10 matches for FC Porto and 10 for Estoril. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 9 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

FC Porto averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Estoril averaged 0.8 and 1.8 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Estoril is winless in its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Estoril here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

FC Porto

W L L W W

avg 1.6 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Estoril

L D L L L

avg 0.8 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

12 Apr 2026 Estoril 1–3 FC Porto

30 Nov 2025 FC Porto 1–0 Estoril

30 Mar 2025 Estoril 1–2 FC Porto

03 Nov 2024 FC Porto 4–0 Estoril

30 Mar 2024 Estoril 1–0 FC Porto

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1 · Home win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.18

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 56c46007244304d2

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit