Liga MX Sat, 31 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC

CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL

Fair price as of 17:35 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 22:35 UTC
Check my slip

Most likely: CF Pachuca 43%
Over 2.5 goals: 54%
Most likely score 1–1 (12.7%, estimate)

The sharp market makes CF Pachuca the most likely outcome at 43% — fair odds of 2.34. Unibet (NL) offers 2.40, a market gap of +2.5% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Value flag). Confidence is Medium and model agreement is High. Recent form — CF Pachuca: WLLDL; Tigres UANL: DLDWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity Value flag

1 CF Pachuca @ 2.40

Bookmaker Unibet (NL)

Price observed Tue, 27 Oct · 17:34 UTC

Flag recorded Mon, 26 Oct · 02:00 UTC @ 2.40 (Unibet (NL)) · recorded live, before kick-off

Market 1X2 (match result)

Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.

Fair price 2.34

Unibet (NL) 2.40

Market Gap +2.5%

Confidence Medium

Model agreement High

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Edge at detection +3.6% @ 2.40 · 26 Oct

Edge right now +2.5% @ 2.40 · 1 hour ago

The gap has held since we flagged it: both the sharp benchmark and the soft price are re-read continuously, and the edge above is computed on the current market, not on the odds we saw at detection.

Market discrepancy: CF Pachuca (1) is priced at 2.40 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.34 — a +2.5% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 73%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	43%	27%	30%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	43%	27%	30%
Our model	39%	28%	33%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.37

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.21 / 3.47 / 3.12

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 1 hour ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.37

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 2.40 / 3.52 / 3.16

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 29 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	2.34	3.71	3.30
Pinnacle sharp	2.25	3.49	3.12
BetOnline.ag	2.23	3.50	3.16 ★
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	2.20	3.60 ★	2.90
Casumo UK-only	2.40 ★	3.30	2.70
Grosvenor UK-only	2.40 ★	3.30	2.70
LiveScore Bet UK-only	2.35	3.20	2.65
Unibet (NL)	2.40 ★	3.30	2.70
Unibet (SE)	2.40 ★	3.30	2.70

Show all 29 bookmakers

1xBet	2.17	3.52	2.99
888sport	2.10	3.10	2.90
BetVictor	2.20	3.50	2.90
Betano (UK) UK-only	2.20	3.50	2.90
Betclic (FR)	2.13	3.28	2.72
Betfred (UK) UK-only	2.15	3.30	2.80
Betsson	2.22	3.45	2.95
Betway UK-only	2.15	3.40	2.90
BoyleSports UK-only	2.10	3.30	2.88
GTbets	2.22	3.50	3.09
LeoVegas UK-only	2.20	3.40	2.80
LeoVegas (SE)	2.32	3.15	2.63
Marathonbet	2.15	3.52	2.97
Nordic Bet	2.22	3.45	2.95
PMU (FR)	2.25	3.05	2.55
Paddy Power UK-only	2.15	3.50	2.88
Sky Bet UK-only	2.10	3.25	2.70
Tipico	2.25	3.30	2.85
Unibet (UK) UK-only	2.25	3.40	2.85
Virgin Bet UK-only	2.35	3.20	2.65
William Hill	2.10	3.10	2.90

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 03:31 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	79% fair 1.26 best 1.25 · Betano	21% fair 4.86 best 4.00 · Bet365
2.5	54% fair 1.84 best 1.75 · Betano	46% fair 2.20 best 2.12 · Betano
3.5	32% fair 3.14 best 2.82 · Betano	68% fair 1.47 best 1.45 · Betano

All lines (8)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	79% fair 1.26 best 1.25 · Betano	21% fair 4.86 best 4.00 · Bet365
2.25	1.61 fair best 1.53 · BetVictor	2.63 fair best 2.37 · 1xBet
2.5	54% fair 1.84 best 1.75 · Betano	46% fair 2.20 best 2.12 · Betano
2.75	2.06 fair best 1.89 · 1xBet	1.95 fair best 1.84 · 1xBet
3	2.41 fair best 2.25 · Betano	1.71 fair best 1.67 · Betano
3.25	2.78 fair best 2.42 · 1xBet	1.56 fair best 1.49 · 1xBet
3.5	32% fair 3.14 best 2.82 · Betano	68% fair 1.47 best 1.45 · Betano
4.5	16% fair 6.45 best 5.50 · Bet365	84% fair 1.18 best 1.18 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
70% fair 1.44 best 1.42 · Betano	73% fair 1.37 best 1.29 · William Hill	57% fair 1.75 best 1.65 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	CF Pachuca	Tigres UANL
−0.75	2.87 fair best 2.68 · Bet365	1.53 fair best 1.47 · 1xBet
−0.5	42% fair 2.37 best 2.30 · Bet365	58% fair 1.73 best 1.65 · Betano
−0.25	2.04 fair best 2.02 · Bet365	1.96 fair best 1.85 · 1xBet
0	1.71 fair best 1.72 · Bet365	2.42 fair best 2.19 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.52 fair best 1.55 · Bet365	2.91 fair best 2.52 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	CF Pachuca	Tigres UANL
−1.25	4.46 fair best 3.90 · Bet365	1.29 fair best 1.24 · Bet365
−1	3.91 fair best 3.55 · Bet365	1.34 fair best 1.32 · Betano
−0.75	2.87 fair best 2.68 · Bet365	1.53 fair best 1.47 · 1xBet
−0.5	42% fair 2.37 best 2.30 · Bet365	58% fair 1.73 best 1.65 · Betano
−0.25	2.04 fair best 2.02 · Bet365	1.96 fair best 1.85 · 1xBet
0	1.71 fair best 1.72 · Bet365	2.42 fair best 2.19 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.52 fair best 1.55 · Bet365	2.91 fair best 2.52 · 1xBet
+0.5	71% fair 1.41 best 1.42 · Bet365	29% fair 3.44 best 2.95 · Betano
+0.75	1.29 fair best 1.30 · Bet365	4.46 fair best 3.45 · Bet365

Goals by team

CF Pachuca goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	44% fair 2.25 best 2.10 · Bet365	56% fair 1.80 best 1.77 · 1xBet

All lines (3)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	80% fair 1.24 best 1.23 · Betano	20% fair 5.13 best 4.10 · BetVictor
1.5	44% fair 2.25 best 2.10 · Bet365	56% fair 1.80 best 1.77 · 1xBet
2.5	19% fair 5.14 best 4.50 · Bet365	81% fair 1.24 best 1.22 · Betano

Tigres UANL goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	36% fair 2.77 best 2.40 · BetVictor	64% fair 1.56 best 1.57 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	75% fair 1.33 best 1.29 · 1xBet	25% fair 4.01 best 3.50 · Bet365
1.5	36% fair 2.77 best 2.40 · BetVictor	64% fair 1.56 best 1.57 · Betfair Sportsbook

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
34% fair 2.97 best 2.88 · Bet365	41% fair 2.46 best 2.30 · Bet365	26% fair 3.91 best 3.62 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	2.30 fair best 2.07 · 1xBet	1.77 fair best 1.67 · BetVictor
1.5	35% fair 2.85 best 2.62 · Betano	65% fair 1.54 best 1.50 · Bet365

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.49 fair best 1.45 · BetVictor	3.06 fair best 2.60 · 1xBet
1	1.75 fair best 1.78 · Betano	2.33 fair best 2.09 · 1xBet
1.25	2.30 fair best 2.07 · 1xBet	1.77 fair best 1.67 · BetVictor
1.5	35% fair 2.85 best 2.62 · Betano	65% fair 1.54 best 1.50 · Bet365
1.75	3.83 fair best 3.06 · 1xBet	1.35 fair best 1.34 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–112.7%fair 7.86
2–19.1%fair 10.99
1–07.9%fair 12.73
1–27.5%fair 13.35
2–07.0%fair 14.20
0–06.9%fair 14.60

Total goals

07%
114%
225%
322%
4+32%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: CF Pachuca at home, Tigres UANL away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	CF Pachuca	Tigres UANL
Goals scored per game	1.60 (1.70)	0.90 (0.60)
Goals conceded per game	1.30 (1.70)	0.90 (1.40)
Over 2.5 goals	60% (60%)	10% (30%)
Both teams scored	70% (70%)	40% (50%)
Clean sheets	20% (20%)	40% (30%)
Failed to score	10% (10%)	40% (50%)
xG for / against per game	1.04 / 1.97	1.09 / 1.53
Corners for / against per game	5.30 / 4.40	5.70 / 5.00
Cards per game	3.30	1.60

Over 2.5 goals: CF Pachuca in 60% and Tigres UANL in 10% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 54% for this match.

From 10 matches for CF Pachuca and 10 for Tigres UANL. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value still active

Detected · Mon, 26 Oct · 02:00 UTC

1 CF Pachuca · soft 2.40 (Unibet (NL)) · fair 2.32 · edge +3.6%

Opening sharp

2.21

Current Value still active

soft 2.40 · sharp 2.25 · fair 2.34 · edge +2.5%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

CF Pachuca averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Tigres UANL averaged 1.2 and 1.2 over 5.

The sharp market price on CF Pachuca has barely moved since opening (2.21 to 2.25) — no significant new information has repriced this match.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

CF Pachuca

W L L D L

avg 1.4 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)

Tigres UANL

D L D W W

avg 1.2 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

21 Feb 2026 Tigres UANL 1–2 CF Pachuca

23 Oct 2025 CF Pachuca 1–2 Tigres UANL

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.29

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · CF Pachuca

Odds when flagged 2.40

Fair odds 2.32

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 06e750487dbfcc62

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit