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Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
  • Line-ups usually from
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The sharp market makes Machida Zelvia the most likely outcome at 55% — fair odds of 1.80. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Machida Zelvia: DWWWW; Gamba Osaka: DWDWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Machida Zelvia anyway? The best price we see is 1.78 at Unibet (UK), -1.3% against the fair odds of 1.80. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

1 Home win 55%
1X2
Sharp now55%24%20%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded55%24%20%
Our model54%26%20%
Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.80
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.75 / 3.82 / 4.54

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick now 1.80
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.77 / 3.88 / 4.50
Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 27 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 1.804.114.93
Pinnacle sharp 1.75 3.82 4.54
1xBet 1.77 3.88 ★ 4.46
888sport 1.75 3.60 4.20
Betclic (FR) 1.68 3.40 4.00
Betsson 1.75 3.50 4.20
Coolbet 1.75 3.85 4.50 ★
Tipico 1.67 3.60 4.50 ★
Unibet (UK) UK-only 1.78 ★ 3.60 4.20
Show all 27 bookmakers
BoyleSports UK-only 1.70 3.60 4.20
Casumo UK-only 1.72 3.65 4.35
Coral UK-only 1.73 3.50 4.00
Grosvenor UK-only 1.72 3.65 4.35
Ladbrokes UK-only 1.73 3.50 4.00
LeoVegas (SE) 1.73 3.70 4.35
LiveScore Bet UK-only 1.70 3.60 4.25
Marathonbet 1.72 3.78 4.35
Nordic Bet 1.75 3.50 4.20
PMU (FR) 1.64 3.50 4.10
Paddy Power UK-only 1.67 3.80 4.33
Sky Bet UK-only 1.62 3.50 3.90
Unibet (FR) 1.60 3.35 3.90
Unibet (NL) 1.72 3.65 4.35
Unibet (SE) 1.72 3.65 4.35
Virgin Bet UK-only 1.70 3.60 4.25
William Hill 1.75 3.60 4.20
Winamax (DE) 1.72 3.55 3.95
Winamax (FR) 1.70 3.50 3.85

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 77% fair 1.29 best 1.25 · Bet365 23% fair 4.43 best 3.92 · 1xBet
2.5 52% fair 1.90 best 1.86 · SBO 48% fair 2.11 best 2.08 · 1xBet
3.5 30% fair 3.36 best 3.00 · Bet365 70% fair 1.42 best 1.42 · Betano
All lines (9)
Line OverUnder
1.5 77% fair 1.29 best 1.25 · Bet365 23% fair 4.43 best 3.92 · 1xBet
2 1.44 fair best 1.37 · BetVictor 3.28 fair best 3.08 · 1xBet
2.25 1.67 fair best 1.58 · 1xBet 2.49 fair best 2.42 · 1xBet
2.5 52% fair 1.90 best 1.86 · SBO 48% fair 2.11 best 2.08 · 1xBet
2.75 2.16 fair best 2.11 · SBO 1.86 fair best 1.85 · 1xBet
3 2.60 fair best 2.26 · 1xBet 1.63 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet
3.25 2.76 fair best 2.51 · 1xBet 1.57 fair best 1.49 · 1xBet
3.5 30% fair 3.36 best 3.00 · Bet365 70% fair 1.42 best 1.42 · Betano
4.5 14% fair 7.22 best 6.00 · Bet365 86% fair 1.16 best 1.16 · Betano

Double chance
1X12X2
80% fair 1.25 best 1.23 · Betano 76% fair 1.32 best 1.27 · Betano 45% fair 2.24 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line Machida ZelviaGamba Osaka
−1.25 2.95 fair best 2.70 · 1xBet 1.51 fair best 1.45 · 1xBet
−1 2.51 fair best 2.36 · 1xBet 1.66 fair best 1.57 · 1xBet
−0.75 2.06 fair best 2.02 · SBO 1.94 fair best 1.84 · 1xBet
−0.5 55% fair 1.82 best 1.77 · SBO 45% fair 2.23 best 2.09 · SBO
−0.25 1.58 fair best 1.54 · 1xBet 2.72 fair best 2.40 · 1xBet
All lines (9)
Line Machida ZelviaGamba Osaka
−1.75 4.36 fair best 3.69 · 1xBet 1.30 fair best 1.25 · 1xBet
−1.5 29% fair 3.39 best 3.25 · 1xBet 71% fair 1.42 best 1.36 · Betfair Sportsbook
−1.25 2.95 fair best 2.70 · 1xBet 1.51 fair best 1.45 · 1xBet
−1 2.51 fair best 2.36 · 1xBet 1.66 fair best 1.57 · 1xBet
−0.75 2.06 fair best 2.02 · SBO 1.94 fair best 1.84 · 1xBet
−0.5 55% fair 1.82 best 1.77 · SBO 45% fair 2.23 best 2.09 · SBO
−0.25 1.58 fair best 1.54 · 1xBet 2.72 fair best 2.40 · 1xBet
0 1.35 fair best 1.33 · 1xBet 3.84 fair best 3.13 · 1xBet
+0.25 1.29 fair best 1.26 · 1xBet 4.49 fair best 3.51 · 1xBet

Goals by team

Machida Zelvia goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 52% fair 1.93 best 1.75 · 1xBet 48% fair 2.07 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
1.5 52% fair 1.93 best 1.75 · 1xBet 48% fair 2.07 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 24% fair 4.26 best 3.50 · BetVictor 76% fair 1.31 best 1.32 · Betano

Gamba Osaka goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 65% fair 1.54 best 1.45 · BetVictor 35% fair 2.84 best 2.65 · Betano
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 65% fair 1.54 best 1.45 · BetVictor 35% fair 2.84 best 2.65 · Betano
1.5 25% fair 4.03 best 3.25 · BetVictor 75% fair 1.33 best 1.34 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1X2
42% fair 2.40 best 2.30 · BetVictor 40% fair 2.49 best 2.30 · Betfair Sportsbook 18% fair 5.51 best 4.80 · BetVictor

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 72% fair 1.38 best 1.39 · Betano 28% fair 3.61 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook
1 1.83 fair best 1.80 · SBO 2.20 fair best 2.06 · 1xBet
1.5 33% fair 3.01 best 2.65 · Betano 67% fair 1.50 best 1.47 · Betano
All lines (6)
Line OverUnder
0.5 72% fair 1.38 best 1.39 · Betano 28% fair 3.61 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook
0.75 1.53 fair best 1.48 · BetVictor 2.90 fair best 2.56 · 1xBet
1 1.83 fair best 1.80 · SBO 2.20 fair best 2.06 · 1xBet
1.25 2.41 fair best 2.10 · BetVictor 1.71 fair best 1.63 · BetVictor
1.5 33% fair 3.01 best 2.65 · Betano 67% fair 1.50 best 1.47 · Betano
1.75 3.83 fair best 3.16 · 1xBet 1.35 fair best 1.27 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–111.6%fair 8.64
  2. 1–010.5%fair 9.48
  3. 2–09.9%fair 10.09
  4. 2–19.8%fair 10.17
  5. 0–06.8%fair 14.74
  6. 3–05.9%fair 16.97

Total goals

  • 07%
  • 116%
  • 225%
  • 322%
  • 4+30%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Machida Zelvia at home, Gamba Osaka away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesMachida ZelviaGamba Osaka
Goals scored per game 1.60 (1.10) 2.10 (1.70)
Goals conceded per game 0.30 (0.30) 1.10 (1.10)
Over 2.5 goals 30% (20%) 70% (60%)
Both teams scored 20% (0%) 80% (80%)
Clean sheets 80% (90%) 20% (20%)
Failed to score 20% (30%) 10% (10%)
xG for / against per game 1.93 / 1.12 1.27 / 1.03
Corners for / against per game 5.00 / 3.70 3.50 / 4.50
Cards per game 1.50 1.75

Over 2.5 goals: Machida Zelvia in 30% and Gamba Osaka in 70% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 52% for this match.

From 10 matches for Machida Zelvia and 10 for Gamba Osaka. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 8 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Machida Zelvia averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Gamba Osaka averaged 2.6 and 1.4 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Machida Zelvia is unbeaten in its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Machida Zelvia here.
Gamba Osaka is unbeaten in its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Gamba Osaka here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Machida Zelvia
D W W W W
avg 2 scored · 0 conceded (last 5)
Gamba Osaka
D W D W W
avg 2.6 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
20 Aug 2025 Machida Zelvia 3–1 Gamba Osaka
02 Apr 2025 Gamba Osaka 0–1 Machida Zelvia
30 Jun 2024 Gamba Osaka 1–3 Machida Zelvia
24 Feb 2024 Machida Zelvia 1–1 Gamba Osaka

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.75
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint d261698ea21a7751

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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