Japan

J1 League predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every J1 League fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated at 16:34 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Sat · 05:00 UTC	Kyoto SangaShimizu S-pulse	36% 2.68 fair 2.80	29% 3.50 fair 3.42	35% 2.70 fair 2.85	No value
Sat · 05:00 UTC	Mito HollyhockSanfrecce Hiroshima	14% 6.57 fair 7.37	18% 4.80 fair 5.49	68% 1.48 fair 1.47	Not re-checked
Sat · 05:00 UTC	Fagiano OkayamaFC Tokyo	26% 3.70 fair 3.87	27% 3.57 fair 3.68	47% 2.17 fair 2.13	Not re-checked
Sat · 06:00 UTC	KashimaCerezo Osaka	56% 1.73 fair 1.77	23% 4.20 fair 4.40	21% 4.40 fair 4.78	Value expired
Sat · 06:00 UTC	Vissel KobeNagoya Grampus	50% 1.95 fair 2.02	26% 3.85 fair 3.90	25% 4.25 fair 4.03	Value expired
Sat · 07:00 UTC	Kashiwa ReysolUrawa	45% 2.14 fair 2.20	25% 3.81 fair 4.06	30% 3.45 fair 3.34	No value
Sun · 04:00 UTC	Yokohama F. MarinosKawasaki Frontale	31% 3.02 fair 3.23	25% 3.85 fair 4.00	44% 2.20 fair 2.27	No value
Sun · 05:00 UTC	JEF United ChibaAvispa Fukuoka	30% 3.20 fair 3.32	28% 3.40 fair 3.54	42% 2.35 fair 2.40	No value
Sun · 05:00 UTC	V-varen NagasakiTokyo Verdy	39% 2.45 fair 2.55	30% 3.33 fair 3.39	31% 3.00 fair 3.19	No value
Sun · 07:00 UTC	Machida ZelviaGamba Osaka	55% 1.77 fair 1.80	24% 3.88 fair 4.11	20% 4.50 fair 4.93	No value

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
25 Oct	Kawasaki Frontale – Fagiano Okayama	2–1	51%
25 Oct	FC Tokyo – Mito Hollyhock	6–0	74%
25 Oct	Urawa – V-varen Nagasaki	1–0	56%
25 Oct	Cerezo Osaka – JEF United Chiba	2–2	24%
25 Oct	Nagoya Grampus – Yokohama F. Marinos	1–1	25%
24 Oct	Gamba Osaka – Kyoto Sanga	2–2	24%
24 Oct	Tokyo Verdy – Avispa Fukuoka	3–1	30%
24 Oct	Vissel Kobe – Machida Zelvia	0–0	28%
24 Oct	Kashima – Kashiwa Reysol	2–3	30%
24 Oct	Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Shimizu S-pulse	4–0	70%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on J1 League

Across the matches we priced in J1 League, the market's average 1X2 margin is 8.69%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 3.87%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	30	10	+20	27
2	FC Tokyo	12	8	3	1	27	8	+19	27
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	29	10	+19	26
4	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	25	19	+6	25
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	18	11	+7	23
6	Kawasaki Frontale	12	6	4	2	25	18	+7	22
7	Urawa	12	7	0	5	21	23	-2	21
8	Kashima	12	6	2	4	25	21	+4	20
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	12	4	6	2	16	12	+4	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	12	5	1	6	15	17	-2	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	14	18	-4	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	12	3	5	4	12	19	-7	14
13	Shimizu S-pulse	12	4	2	6	10	20	-10	14
14	V-varen Nagasaki	12	3	3	6	15	19	-4	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	14	21	-7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	2	4	6	15	23	-8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	12	2	3	7	12	22	-10	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	9	21	-12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	13	21	-8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	12	1	4	7	12	24	-12	7

Team stats this season

38 matches this season: 2.95 goals per game, 66% over 2.5, 50% both teams scored. xG 2.52 per match (from 38 matches); 9.5 corners and 3.1 cards per match (from 38 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Kawasaki Frontale	4	2.25	1.50	100%	100%	0%	1.28 / 1.40	8.0	1.3
Gamba Osaka	3	2.00	1.67	100%	100%	0%	1.04 / 0.96	8.0	1.7
Avispa Fukuoka	4	1.00	2.25	100%	75%	0%	0.94 / 1.05	7.5	2.5
Shimizu S-pulse	4	1.00	3.00	100%	50%	0%	0.72 / 1.96	9.8	1.3
FC Tokyo	4	3.25	0.00	75%	0%	100%	2.20 / 0.72	9.8	1.3
Sanfrecce Hiroshima	4	2.25	1.00	75%	0%	75%	1.66 / 1.03	10.0	1.0
Tokyo Verdy	4	1.25	2.25	75%	50%	0%	0.92 / 1.70	9.8	2.0
Fagiano Okayama	4	1.00	1.75	75%	50%	25%	1.01 / 0.92	10.0	2.3
Kyoto Sanga	4	1.00	2.00	75%	50%	0%	0.90 / 1.34	9.5	1.3
Kashima	3	2.00	1.67	67%	67%	33%	1.42 / 0.80	8.7	0.0
Kashiwa Reysol	3	1.33	1.67	67%	67%	33%	0.93 / 1.44	9.7	2.3
Vissel Kobe	3	1.33	0.67	67%	33%	67%	1.46 / 1.76	12.0	0.7
Machida Zelvia	4	2.25	0.00	50%	0%	100%	2.08 / 0.85	10.5	1.3
Nagoya Grampus	4	1.75	1.00	50%	100%	0%	1.41 / 1.02	8.0	1.0
Cerezo Osaka	4	1.25	1.75	50%	75%	25%	1.28 / 1.25	6.0	3.5
JEF United Chiba	4	1.25	1.50	50%	75%	25%	1.49 / 1.10	10.8	3.3
Urawa	4	1.25	1.25	50%	25%	50%	1.46 / 1.08	9.8	0.3
Mito Hollyhock	4	0.25	2.75	50%	25%	0%	0.45 / 1.84	9.8	1.0
V-varen Nagasaki	4	1.25	1.00	25%	25%	25%	1.22 / 1.56	10.5	1.8
Yokohama F. Marinos	4	0.75	0.75	25%	50%	50%	1.28 / 1.39	11.3	1.3

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best J1 League predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for J1 League is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every J1 League fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer J1 League betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each J1 League match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit