Mlada Boleslav 3–1 Hradec Králové
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · All of yesterday's results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Mlada Boleslav was the most likely outcome at 43% (fair odds 2.33). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Mlada Boleslav: DWLLW; Hradec Králové: LDLLW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 27' Solomon John · yellow card · Mlada Boleslav
- 31' Filip Cihak · yellow card · Hradec Králové
- 39' Filip Matousek · disallowed by VAR · Mlada Boleslav
- 57' 0–1 Filip Cihak · goal · assist Daniel Horak · Hradec Králové
- 64' František Čech · yellow card · Hradec Králové
- 67' Samuel Dancak · yellow card · Hradec Králové
- 80' 1–1 Jan Buryan · goal · assist Matej Hybs · Mlada Boleslav
- 82' 2–1 Josef Kolarik · goal · assist Jan Buryan · Mlada Boleslav
- 87' 3–1 Jan Buryan · goal · assist Marek Havran · Mlada Boleslav
Match stats
| Match stats | Mlada Boleslav | Hradec Králové |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 60 | 40 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 2.45 | 1.09 |
| Shots | 18 | 16 |
| Shots on target | 8 | 6 |
| Corners | 8 | 7 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 6 | 12 |
| Offsides | 1 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 5 | 5 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Mlada Boleslav win 43% happened
- Draw 26% did not happen
- Hradec Králové win 31% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 60% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Mlada Boleslav 4-2-3-1
- 42 V. Vorel GK
- 32 F. Matoušek DF
- 44 O. Karafiát DF
- 3 M. Králik DF
- 11 M. Hybš DF
- 19 D. Kozel MF
- 76 Jan Zika MF
- 20 S. John MF
- 28 D. Langhamer MF
- 21 M. Šubert MF
- 23 J. Klíma FW
Bench: J. Buryán, D. Donát, J. Floder, S. Grygar, J. Harušťák, M. Havran, J. Kolářík, Filip Lehký, D. Pech, F. Špatenka, M. Zachoval
Coach: A. Majer
Hradec Králové 3-4-2-1
- 12 A. Zadražil GK
- 7 J. Uhrinčať DF
- 4 T. Petrášek DF
- 25 F. Čech DF
- 28 J. Kučera MF
- 5 F. Čihák MF
- 11 S. Dancák MF
- 26 D. Horák MF
- 24 A. Umar MF
- 10 M. van Buren MF
- 70 T. Čvančara FW
Bench: M. Valenta, P. Vízek, M. Vágner, D. Trubač, T. Slončík, O. Mihálik, F. Mielke, D. Ludvíček, J. Chvátal, Rodrigo Abajas
Coach: D. Horejs
Regular starters not in the XI
- V. Darida — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
- T. Slončík — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 43 / 26 / 31% when the line-ups came out, 43 / 26 / 31% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 43% | 27% | 30% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 38% | 29% | 33% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Mlada Boleslav averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Hradec Králové averaged 1.0 and 1.8 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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