Austrian Bundesliga Sun, 01 Nov 2026 · 13:30 UTC

Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau

Fair price as of 16:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 13:05 UTC
Check my slip

Most likely: Red Bull Salzburg 84%
Over 2.5 goals: 78%
Most likely score 3–0 (9.6%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Red Bull Salzburg the most likely outcome at 84% — fair odds of 1.19. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Red Bull Salzburg: WDWLD; Austria Lustenau: LLLWL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value at the current price · Flag recorded 25 Oct: 1 · Red Bull Salzburg at +0.6%

Value check

No value

Edge at detection +0.6% @ 1.18 · 25 Oct

Edge right now No value at the current price 2 hours ago

We flagged +0.6% on 1 on 25 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

Betting on Red Bull Salzburg anyway? The best price we see is 1.20 at Coral, +0.7% against the fair odds of 1.19. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

1 Home win 84%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	84%	10%	6%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	85%	9%	6%
Our model	68%	20%	12%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.17

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.15 / 8.25 / 12.25

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 2 hours ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.19

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.19 / 8.00 / 12.50

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 32 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	1.19	10.23	15.97
Pinnacle sharp	1.17	8.08	12.05
1xBet	1.18	7.20	12.00
888sport	1.18	7.00	11.00
Betsson	1.17	7.10	12.50 ★
Coral UK-only	1.20 ★	6.50	9.50
Ladbrokes UK-only	1.20 ★	6.50	9.50
Nordic Bet	1.17	7.10	12.50 ★
Tipico	1.16	8.00 ★	12.00

Show all 32 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	1.21	7.80	12.50
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	1.21	7.80	12.50
Smarkets exchange	1.20	7.60	12.00
BetOnline.ag	1.17	7.40	9.20
Betclic (FR)	1.15	6.25	9.25
Betfred (UK) UK-only	1.17	6.00	10.00
Betway UK-only	1.17	7.50	9.00
BoyleSports UK-only	1.17	6.50	9.50
Casumo UK-only	1.19	7.00	11.50
Codere (IT)	1.18	6.80	9.80
Coolbet	1.18	7.25	12.00
Grosvenor UK-only	1.19	7.00	11.50
LeoVegas (SE)	1.14	6.50	10.50
LiveScore Bet UK-only	1.14	6.50	10.50
PMU (FR)	1.14	6.50	10.50
Sky Bet UK-only	1.13	6.00	10.50
Unibet (FR)	1.13	6.10	8.80
Unibet (NL)	1.19	7.00	11.50
Unibet (SE)	1.19	7.00	11.50
Unibet (UK) UK-only	1.19	7.00	10.50
Virgin Bet UK-only	1.14	6.50	10.50
William Hill	1.18	7.00	11.00
Winamax (DE)	1.16	7.00	8.50
Winamax (FR)	1.15	6.50	8.50

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 02:46 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	78% fair 1.28 best 1.28 · Bet365	22% fair 4.52 best 3.80 · BetVictor
3.5	58% fair 1.74 best 1.70 · Betano	42% fair 2.35 best 2.13 · 1xBet

All lines (8)

Line	Over	Under
2.5	78% fair 1.28 best 1.28 · Bet365	22% fair 4.52 best 3.80 · BetVictor
3.25	1.56 fair best 1.50 · BetVictor	2.77 fair best 2.41 · 1xBet
3.5	58% fair 1.74 best 1.70 · Betano	42% fair 2.35 best 2.13 · 1xBet
3.75	1.92 fair best 1.86 · SBO	2.09 fair best 1.96 · SBO
4	2.21 fair best 2.13 · SBO	1.83 fair best 1.75 · Betano
4.25	2.55 fair best 2.19 · 1xBet	1.65 fair best 1.59 · 1xBet
4.5	35% fair 2.87 best 2.55 · BetVictor	65% fair 1.54 best 1.50 · Bet365
5.5	19% fair 5.37 best 4.40 · BetVictor	81% fair 1.23 best 1.23 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
94% fair 1.07 best 1.06 · Betano	90% fair 1.11 best 1.10 · Bet365	16% fair 6.24 best 5.00 · Betfair Sportsbook

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Red Bull Salzburg	Austria Lustenau
−2.5	41% fair 2.46 best 2.25 · Bet365	59% fair 1.68 best 1.62 · Bet365
−2.25	2.16 fair best 2.16 · SBO	1.86 fair best 1.75 · Bet365
−2	1.88 fair best 1.83 · SBO	2.14 fair best 2.01 · SBO
−1.75	1.68 fair best 1.65 · Bet365	2.47 fair best 2.20 · Bet365
−1.5	64% fair 1.55 best 1.55 · Bet365	36% fair 2.81 best 2.50 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (10)

Line	Red Bull Salzburg	Austria Lustenau
−3.25	3.73 fair best 3.45 · Bet365	1.37 fair best 1.30 · Bet365
−3	3.57 fair best 3.10 · Bet365	1.39 fair best 1.35 · Bet365
−2.75	2.87 fair best 2.60 · Bet365	1.53 fair best 1.48 · Bet365
−2.5	41% fair 2.46 best 2.25 · Bet365	59% fair 1.68 best 1.62 · Bet365
−2.25	2.16 fair best 2.16 · SBO	1.86 fair best 1.75 · Bet365
−2	1.88 fair best 1.83 · SBO	2.14 fair best 2.01 · SBO
−1.75	1.68 fair best 1.65 · Bet365	2.47 fair best 2.20 · Bet365
−1.5	64% fair 1.55 best 1.55 · Bet365	36% fair 2.81 best 2.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
−1.25	1.40 fair best 1.40 · Bet365	3.50 fair best 2.85 · Bet365
−1	1.25 fair best 1.26 · Bet365	5.03 fair best 3.70 · Bet365

Goals by team

Red Bull Salzburg goals

Line	Over	Under
2.5	61% fair 1.64 best 1.60 · Betano	39% fair 2.57 best 2.33 · Marathonbet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
2.5	61% fair 1.64 best 1.60 · Betano	39% fair 2.57 best 2.33 · Marathonbet
3.5	35% fair 2.83 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook	65% fair 1.55 best 1.55 · Marathonbet

Austria Lustenau goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	57% fair 1.76 best 1.60 · Betano	43% fair 2.32 best 2.25 · Bet365

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	57% fair 1.76 best 1.60 · Betano	43% fair 2.32 best 2.25 · Bet365
1.5	19% fair 5.26 best 4.00 · Bet365	81% fair 1.23 best 1.26 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
65% fair 1.53 best 1.55 · Betano	26% fair 3.88 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook	9% fair 11.30 best 8.70 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	53% fair 1.90 best 1.85 · Betano	47% fair 2.11 best 1.98 · 1xBet

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
1	1.29 fair best 1.37 · Betano	4.46 fair best 3.64 · 1xBet
1.25	1.59 fair best 1.52 · BetVictor	2.70 fair best 2.47 · 1xBet
1.5	53% fair 1.90 best 1.85 · Betano	47% fair 2.11 best 1.98 · 1xBet
1.75	2.26 fair best 2.04 · SBO	1.80 fair best 1.78 · SBO
2	3.00 fair best 2.72 · Betano	1.50 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet
2.25	3.43 fair best 2.79 · 1xBet	1.41 fair best 1.36 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

3–09.6%fair 10.46
2–08.7%fair 11.47
3–18.0%fair 12.47
4–07.9%fair 12.70
2–17.3%fair 13.68
4–16.6%fair 15.15

Total goals

01%
17%
213%
319%
4+59%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Red Bull Salzburg at home, Austria Lustenau away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Red Bull Salzburg	Austria Lustenau
Goals scored per game	2.20 (2.20)	1.20 (1.30)
Goals conceded per game	1.00 (1.00)	2.40 (2.20)
Over 2.5 goals	70% (70%)	70% (70%)
Both teams scored	50% (40%)	70% (70%)
Clean sheets	40% (50%)	10% (20%)
Failed to score	20% (10%)	20% (10%)
xG for / against per game	1.90 / 1.31	1.16 / 2.38
Corners for / against per game	4.20 / 4.10	4.90 / 8.00
Cards per game	1.60	2.20

Over 2.5 goals: Red Bull Salzburg in 70% and Austria Lustenau in 70% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 78% for this match.

From 10 matches for Red Bull Salzburg and 10 for Austria Lustenau. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value expired

Detected · Sun, 25 Oct · 17:00 UTC

1 Red Bull Salzburg · soft 1.18 (William Hill) · fair 1.17 · edge +0.6%

Opening sharp

1.15

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Red Bull Salzburg averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Austria Lustenau averaged 1.4 and 3.0 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Austria Lustenau has lost its last 3 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Austria Lustenau here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Red Bull Salzburg

W D W L D

avg 1.6 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)

Austria Lustenau

L L L W L

avg 1.4 scored · 3 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 06:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1 · Home win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.15

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Red Bull Salzburg

Odds when flagged 1.18

Fair odds 1.17

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 6a3cf6a832fb4bb1

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit