Austria

Austrian Bundesliga predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Austrian Bundesliga fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated at 16:34 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Fri · 18:30 UTC	Grazer AKTSV Hartberg	45% 2.12 fair 2.24	28% 3.50 fair 3.63	28% 3.40 fair 3.59	No value
Sat · 16:00 UTC	SCR AltachRied	45% 2.15 fair 2.21	25% 3.75 fair 3.96	29% 3.60 fair 3.39	Value expired
Sat · 18:30 UTC	Lask LinzWSG Wattens	73% 1.33 fair 1.36	15% 6.20 fair 6.66	11% 8.50 fair 8.70	No value
Sun · 13:30 UTC	Red Bull SalzburgAustria Lustenau	84% 1.19 fair 1.19	10% 8.00 fair 10.23	6% 12.50 fair 15.97	Value expired
Sun · 13:30 UTC	Wolfsberger ACSturm Graz	22% 4.50 fair 4.65	21% 4.30 fair 4.74	57% 1.72 fair 1.74	No value
Sun · 16:00 UTC	Austria ViennaRapid Vienna	19% 4.80 fair 5.31	23% 4.20 fair 4.29	58% 1.68 fair 1.73	No value

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
25 Oct	Lask Linz – Red Bull Salzburg	1–3	30%
25 Oct	Sturm Graz – Ried	2–2	20%
24 Oct	Rapid Vienna – Austria Lustenau	5–1	81%
24 Oct	WSG Wattens – Grazer AK	1–1	29%
24 Oct	TSV Hartberg – Wolfsberger AC	1–0	43%
23 Oct	SCR Altach – Austria Vienna	2–1	39%
18 Oct	Sturm Graz – Grazer AK	6–1	49%
18 Oct	Wolfsberger AC – WSG Wattens	0–2	41%
18 Oct	Red Bull Salzburg – SCR Altach	3–0	69%
17 Oct	Ried – Austria Vienna	3–2	41%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Austrian Bundesliga

Across the matches we priced in Austrian Bundesliga, the market's average 1X2 margin is 9.13%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 4.07%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	10	9	0	1	31	9	+22	27
2	Red Bull Salzburg	10	7	3	0	24	5	+19	24
3	Lask Linz	10	6	1	3	24	12	+12	19
4	Sturm Graz	10	5	3	2	18	12	+6	18
5	Ried	10	4	3	3	18	17	+1	15
6	TSV Hartberg	10	4	2	4	16	19	-3	14
7	WSG Wattens	10	3	3	4	13	15	-2	12
8	Grazer AK	10	2	4	4	8	23	-15	10
9	SCR Altach	10	3	0	7	10	16	-6	9
10	Austria Lustenau	10	2	2	6	12	24	-12	8
11	Austria Vienna	10	2	1	7	10	20	-10	7
12	Wolfsberger AC	10	1	2	7	7	19	-12	5

Team stats this season

60 matches this season: 3.18 goals per game, 65% over 2.5, 55% both teams scored. xG 3.26 per match (from 58 matches); 10.8 corners and 3.7 cards per match (from 60 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Rapid Vienna	10	3.10	0.90	80%	50%	50%	2.35 / 1.10	8.8	1.4
Lask Linz	10	2.40	1.20	80%	50%	40%	2.22 / 1.33	9.4	1.6
Ried	10	1.80	1.70	70%	90%	10%	2.06 / 1.71	10.1	2.4
Austria Lustenau	10	1.20	2.40	70%	70%	10%	1.16 / 2.38	12.9	2.2
SCR Altach	10	1.00	1.60	70%	40%	10%	1.20 / 1.32	9.5	1.5
Red Bull Salzburg	10	2.40	0.50	60%	50%	50%	2.61 / 1.06	10.6	0.9
TSV Hartberg	10	1.60	1.90	60%	60%	10%	1.35 / 1.67	11.9	1.6
WSG Wattens	10	1.30	1.50	60%	50%	30%	1.39 / 1.81	12.4	1.4
Austria Vienna	10	1.00	2.00	60%	50%	10%	1.08 / 1.70	10.5	1.5
Grazer AK	10	0.80	2.30	60%	50%	20%	1.17 / 1.72	10.4	2.5
Wolfsberger AC	10	0.70	1.90	60%	40%	20%	1.08 / 2.36	10.6	2.4
Sturm Graz	10	1.80	1.20	50%	60%	30%	2.01 / 1.31	11.9	2.6

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Rapid Vienna	1.6	56.7%	0%
2	Red Bull Salzburg	2	32.8%	0%
3	Lask Linz	3.2	7.8%	0%
4	Sturm Graz	3.8	2.5%	0%
5	Ried	5.7	0.1%	0.9%
6	TSV Hartberg	6.3	0.1%	2%
7	WSG Wattens	8.1	0%	11.8%
8	Grazer AK	8.5	0%	18.4%
9	Austria Vienna	9.1	0%	27.5%
10	Austria Lustenau	9.3	0%	31.2%
11	SCR Altach	9.4	0%	34.1%
12	Wolfsberger AC	11	0%	74.1%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Austrian Bundesliga predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Austrian Bundesliga is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Austrian Bundesliga fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Austrian Bundesliga betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Austrian Bundesliga match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit