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Austrian Bundesliga

Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
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The sharp market makes Sturm Graz the most likely outcome at 57% — fair odds of 1.74. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Wolfsberger AC: LLLLL; Sturm Graz: DWWLW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Sturm Graz anyway? The best price we see is 1.72 at Casumo, -1.2% against the fair odds of 1.74. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

2 Away win 57%
1X2
Sharp now22%21%57%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded22%22%56%
Our model22%23%55%
Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.77
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 4.16 / 4.17 / 1.71

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick now 1.74
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 4.50 / 4.30 / 1.72
Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 30 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 4.654.741.74
Pinnacle sharp 4.27 4.35 1.69
1xBet 4.29 4.15 1.68
Casumo UK-only 4.20 4.10 1.72 ★
Coolbet 4.30 4.30 ★ 1.65
Grosvenor UK-only 4.20 4.10 1.72 ★
Tipico 4.50 ★ 4.10 1.65
Unibet (NL) 4.20 4.10 1.72 ★
Unibet (SE) 4.20 4.10 1.72 ★
Show all 30 bookmakers
888sport 4.00 4.00 1.67
BetOnline.ag 4.10 4.10 1.68
Betclic (FR) 4.00 3.85 1.58
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only 4.33 4.20 1.67
Betfred (UK) UK-only 4.00 4.00 1.62
Betsson 4.40 3.85 1.68
Betway UK-only 3.80 4.20 1.61
BoyleSports UK-only 3.60 4.00 1.60
Codere (IT) 4.20 4.00 1.64
Coral UK-only 4.00 3.90 1.61
Ladbrokes UK-only 4.00 3.90 1.61
LeoVegas (SE) 3.95 3.85 1.64
LiveScore Bet UK-only 3.95 3.85 1.64
Nordic Bet 4.40 3.85 1.68
PMU (FR) 3.95 3.85 1.64
Sky Bet UK-only 3.80 3.75 1.60
Unibet (FR) 3.95 3.80 1.55
Unibet (UK) UK-only 4.25 4.00 1.67
Virgin Bet UK-only 3.95 3.85 1.64
William Hill 4.00 4.00 1.67
Winamax (DE) 4.00 4.00 1.62
Winamax (FR) 3.90 3.95 1.60

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 87% fair 1.15 best 1.16 · Betano 13% fair 7.62 best 5.50 · Bet365
2.5 67% fair 1.50 best 1.52 · Betano 33% fair 3.01 best 2.60 · BetVictor
3.5 44% fair 2.28 best 2.25 · Betano 56% fair 1.78 best 1.63 · BetVictor
All lines (9)
Line OverUnder
1.5 87% fair 1.15 best 1.16 · Betano 13% fair 7.62 best 5.50 · Bet365
2.5 67% fair 1.50 best 1.52 · Betano 33% fair 3.01 best 2.60 · BetVictor
2.75 1.60 fair best 1.57 · 1xBet 2.66 fair best 2.23 · 1xBet
3 1.76 fair best 1.78 · Betano 2.32 fair best 2.08 · SBO
3.25 2.02 fair best 2.02 · SBO 1.98 fair best 1.80 · SBO
3.5 44% fair 2.28 best 2.25 · Betano 56% fair 1.78 best 1.63 · BetVictor
3.75 2.65 fair best 2.49 · 1xBet 1.61 fair best 1.49 · BetVictor
4.5 24% fair 4.18 best 3.75 · Bet365 76% fair 1.31 best 1.26 · Betano
5.5 11% fair 8.90 best 8.00 · Bet365 89% fair 1.13 best 1.11 · Betano

Double chance
1X12X2
43% fair 2.35 best 2.20 · Betano 79% fair 1.27 best 1.22 · William Hill 78% fair 1.27 best 1.24 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line Wolfsberger ACSturm Graz
+0.25 2.80 fair best 2.68 · Bet365 1.56 fair best 1.45 · Bet365
+0.5 43% fair 2.33 best 2.25 · Bet365 57% fair 1.75 best 1.67 · Betano
+0.75 2.05 fair best 2.02 · Bet365 1.95 fair best 1.91 · SBO
+1 1.77 fair best 1.78 · Bet365 2.30 fair best 2.12 · Betano
+1.25 1.60 fair best 1.60 · Bet365 2.66 fair best 2.40 · BetVictor
All lines (9)
Line Wolfsberger ACSturm Graz
−0.25 4.33 fair best 4.00 · Bet365 1.30 fair best 1.23 · Bet365
0 3.75 fair best 3.55 · Bet365 1.36 fair best 1.27 · Bet365
+0.25 2.80 fair best 2.68 · Bet365 1.56 fair best 1.45 · Bet365
+0.5 43% fair 2.33 best 2.25 · Bet365 57% fair 1.75 best 1.67 · Betano
+0.75 2.05 fair best 2.02 · Bet365 1.95 fair best 1.91 · SBO
+1 1.77 fair best 1.78 · Bet365 2.30 fair best 2.12 · Betano
+1.25 1.60 fair best 1.60 · Bet365 2.66 fair best 2.40 · BetVictor
+1.5 67% fair 1.49 best 1.50 · Bet365 33% fair 3.02 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
+1.75 1.36 fair best 1.38 · Bet365 3.75 fair best 3.08 · 1xBet

Goals by team

Wolfsberger AC goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 36% fair 2.81 best 2.63 · 1xBet 64% fair 1.55 best 1.45 · BetVictor
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 74% fair 1.34 best 1.37 · Betano 26% fair 3.91 best 3.25 · Bet365
1.5 36% fair 2.81 best 2.63 · 1xBet 64% fair 1.55 best 1.45 · BetVictor

Sturm Graz goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 63% fair 1.60 best 1.55 · Betano 37% fair 2.67 best 2.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
1.5 63% fair 1.60 best 1.55 · Betano 37% fair 2.67 best 2.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 33% fair 3.05 best 2.63 · BetVictor 67% fair 1.49 best 1.45 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1X2
20% fair 4.91 best 4.51 · 1xBet 36% fair 2.81 best 2.60 · Bet365 44% fair 2.27 best 2.20 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.25 1.88 fair best 1.86 · SBO 2.13 fair best 1.96 · SBO
1.5 43% fair 2.30 best 2.25 · Betano 57% fair 1.77 best 1.67 · William Hill
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.75 1.34 fair best 1.33 · BetVictor 3.95 fair best 3.08 · 1xBet
1 1.48 fair best 1.53 · Betano 3.08 fair best 2.53 · 1xBet
1.25 1.88 fair best 1.86 · SBO 2.13 fair best 1.96 · SBO
1.5 43% fair 2.30 best 2.25 · Betano 57% fair 1.77 best 1.67 · William Hill
1.75 2.89 fair best 2.56 · 1xBet 1.53 fair best 1.46 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–29.6%fair 10.43
  2. 1–19.2%fair 10.87
  3. 0–27.5%fair 13.28
  4. 1–36.9%fair 14.45
  5. 0–16.6%fair 15.13
  6. 2–26.1%fair 16.39

Total goals

  • 04%
  • 110%
  • 219%
  • 322%
  • 4+45%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Wolfsberger AC at home, Sturm Graz away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesWolfsberger ACSturm Graz
Goals scored per game 0.70 (0.90) 1.50 (1.30)
Goals conceded per game 1.90 (1.00) 1.40 (1.50)
Over 2.5 goals 60% (30%) 60% (40%)
Both teams scored 40% (30%) 50% (40%)
Clean sheets 20% (50%) 30% (30%)
Failed to score 50% (40%) 30% (30%)
xG for / against per game 1.08 / 2.36 1.87 / 1.60
Corners for / against per game 4.30 / 6.30 5.90 / 4.70
Cards per game 2.40 2.90

Over 2.5 goals: Wolfsberger AC in 60% and Sturm Graz in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 67% for this match.

From 10 matches for Wolfsberger AC and 10 for Sturm Graz. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Wolfsberger AC averaged 0.2 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Sturm Graz averaged 2.2 and 1.2 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Wolfsberger AC has lost its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Wolfsberger AC here.
Sturm Graz is averaging 2.2 goals scored over its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Sturm Graz here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Wolfsberger AC
L L L L L
avg 0.2 scored · 2.6 conceded (last 5)
Sturm Graz
D W W L W
avg 2.2 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
01 Mar 2026 Wolfsberger AC 2–2 Sturm Graz
26 Oct 2025 Sturm Graz 1–3 Wolfsberger AC
24 May 2025 Sturm Graz 1–1 Wolfsberger AC
30 Mar 2025 Wolfsberger AC 1–1 Sturm Graz
15 Feb 2025 Wolfsberger AC 3–0 Sturm Graz

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 2 · Away win
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.71
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint f13a5f05f2f27761

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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