Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Blackpool
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · All of yesterday's results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Sheffield Wednesday was the most likely outcome at 56% (fair odds 1.80). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Sheffield Wednesday: DLLWD; Blackpool: LWLLL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 25' 1–0 Davis Keillor-Dunn · goal · Sheffield Wednesday
- 38' Mason Burstow · yellow card · Sheffield Wednesday
- 40' Sil swinkels · red card · Sheffield Wednesday
- 79' Ilmari Niskanen · yellow card · Blackpool
- 81' 1–1 Jerry Yates · goal · assist Albie Morgan · Blackpool
- 82' Jordan Williams · yellow card · Blackpool
- 84' Barry Bannan · yellow card · Sheffield Wednesday
- 84' Josh Bowler · yellow card · Blackpool
- 84' Ian Ross Evatt · yellow card · Blackpool
- 90+4' Harry Gray · yellow card · Sheffield Wednesday
Match stats
| Match stats | Sheffield Wednesday | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 48 | 52 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.71 | 1.22 |
| Shots | 17 | 18 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 4 |
| Corners | 10 | 9 |
| Fouls | 12 | 11 |
| Offsides | 3 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 3 | 4 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Sheffield Wednesday win 52% did not happen
- Draw 24% happened
- Blackpool win 24% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Sheffield Wednesday 4-2-3-1
- 13 A. Maynard-Brewer GK
- 7 Y. Valery DF
- 2 L. Palmer DF
- 26 S. Swinkels DF
- 30 Ernie Weaver DF
- 10 B. Bannan MF
- 18 Jaden Heskey MF
- 3 M. Lowe MF
- 8 C. Slattery MF
- 50 D. Keillor-Dunn MF
- 48 Mason Paul James Burstow FW
Bench: H. Gray, J. Liongola, S. Fusire, K. Morrison, G. Otegbayo, Ricardo, C. Trueman
Coach: M. Hamshaw
Regular starters not in the XI
- R. James — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- H. Gray — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- L. Cooper — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Blackpool 4-1-3-2
- 1 B. Peacock-Farrell GK
- 28 J. Williams DF
- 4 O. Casey DF
- 3 Z. Ashworth DF
- 15 H. Coulson DF
- 8 A. Morgan MF
- 2 A. Lyons MF
- 17 Karoy Anderson MF
- 7 L. Clarkson MF
- 14 T. Bloxham FW
- 18 D. Taylor FW
Bench: J. Bowler, J. Brown, D. Charles, Finley Munroe, I. Niskanen, L. Southwood, J. Yates
Coach: I. Evatt
Regular starters not in the XI
- J. Bowler — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- J. Yates — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 53 / 23 / 24% when the line-ups came out, 52 / 24 / 24% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 56% | 22% | 22% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Sheffield Wednesday averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Blackpool averaged 1.0 and 2.2 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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