Bohemians 1905 0–0 Sparta Praha
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · All of yesterday's results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Sparta Praha was the most likely outcome at 55% (fair odds 1.81). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Bohemians 1905: DWWLW; Sparta Praha: WLDDW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 39' Petr Mirvald · yellow card · Bohemians 1905
- 74' Petr Mirvald · red card (after a yellow) · Bohemians 1905
- 76' Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk · yellow card · Sparta Praha
- 77' Patrik Vydra · yellow card · Sparta Praha
- 80' Benson Sakala · yellow card · Bohemians 1905
- 88' Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal · yellow card · Sparta Praha
- 90+1' Brian Priske Pedersen · yellow card · Sparta Praha
- 90+3' Ki-Jana Hoever · yellow card · Sparta Praha
Match stats
| Match stats | Bohemians 1905 | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 35 | 65 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.24 | 3.18 |
| Shots | 4 | 14 |
| Shots on target | 0 | 6 |
| Corners | 5 | 10 |
| Fouls | 17 | 19 |
| Offsides | 1 | 3 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 5 | 0 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Bohemians 1905 win 21% did not happen
- Draw 23% happened
- Sparta Praha win 56% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 57% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Bohemians 1905 3-4-1-2
- 23 T. Frühwald GK
- 24 M. Havel DF
- 27 D. Lischka DF
- 3 Matej Kadlec DF
- 32 P. Mirvald MF
- 47 A. Čermák MF
- 42 V. Smrž MF
- 37 D. Javorček MF
- 16 R. Květ MF
- 99 L. Almási FW
- 10 J. Matoušek FW
Bench: M. Reichl, D. Vala, M. Banda, D. Heidenreich, Simon Cerny, V. Zeman, Samuel Obinaya, B. Sakala, J. Kovařík, L. Krobot, V. Pilař
Coach: J. Veselý
Sparta Praha 4-2-3-1
- 44 J. Surovčík GK
- 25 K. Hoever DF
- 22 L. Mbe Soh DF
- 6 T. Guddal DF
- 15 V. Vitályos DF
- 20 S. Mannsverk MF
- 38 H. Sochurek MF
- 31 M. Jurásek MF
- 26 P. Vydra MF
- 7 J. Alcócer MF
- 14 J. Braut Brunes FW
Bench: J. Grimaldo, K. Hegyi, A. Irving, P. Kadeřábek, R. Macek, J. Martinec, E. Singhateh, M. Suchomel, M. Vojta, J. Zelený, Santiago Eneme
Coach: Brian Priske
Regular starters not in the XI
- Martin Suchomel — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 21 / 23 / 56% when the line-ups came out, 21 / 23 / 56% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 21% | 24% | 55% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 26% | 28% | 46% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Bohemians 1905 averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Sparta Praha averaged 1.6 and 0.6 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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