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PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
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The sharp market makes PAOK the most likely outcome at 76% — fair odds of 1.32. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — PAOK: LWLWW; Asteras Tripolis: DLWDD.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · Not re-checked · Flag recorded 25 Oct: 1 · PAOK at +1.5%

Value check

Not re-checked

A gap of +1.3% on 1 was seen on a price that has not been re-read in the last 90 minutes, so we do not flag it: it may no longer be on offer. Price last seen

Betting on PAOK anyway? The best price we see is 1.34 at Casumo, +1.3% against the fair odds of 1.32. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

1 Home win 76%
1X2
Sharp now76%15%9%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded76%15%9%
Our model58%23%19%
Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.32
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.29 / 5.67 / 8.97

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick now 1.32
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.34 / 5.50 / 9.80
Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 32 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 1.326.5710.97
Pinnacle sharp 1.29 5.58 8.91
1xBet 1.28 5.35 9.80 ★
Casumo UK-only 1.34 ★ 4.50 8.00
Coolbet 1.32 5.50 ★ 9.50
Grosvenor UK-only 1.34 ★ 4.50 8.00
Tipico 1.25 5.50 ★ 8.50
Unibet (NL) 1.34 ★ 4.50 8.00
Unibet (SE) 1.34 ★ 4.50 8.00
Show all 32 bookmakers
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 1.31 5.30 10.50
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 1.31 5.30 10.50
888sport 1.29 5.00 9.00
BetOnline.ag 1.27 5.40 8.40
Betclic (FR) 1.23 4.85 8.00
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only 1.29 5.00 9.50
Betfred (UK) UK-only 1.25 5.00 8.00
Betsson 1.29 5.40 9.00
BoyleSports UK-only 1.25 5.00 8.00
Codere (IT) 1.27 5.20 8.60
Coral UK-only 1.28 5.00 8.00
Ladbrokes UK-only 1.28 5.00 8.00
LeoVegas (SE) 1.30 4.40 7.50
LiveScore Bet UK-only 1.30 4.40 7.50
Nordic Bet 1.28 5.20 8.90
PMU (FR) 1.26 4.30 7.50
Paddy Power UK-only 1.25 5.00 8.50
Sky Bet UK-only 1.25 4.60 7.00
Unibet (FR) 1.18 4.60 7.60
Unibet (UK) UK-only 1.27 5.25 9.00
Virgin Bet UK-only 1.30 4.40 7.50
William Hill 1.29 5.00 9.00
Winamax (DE) 1.25 5.30 7.75
Winamax (FR) 1.24 5.10 7.50

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 83% fair 1.21 best 1.20 · Betano 17% fair 5.87 best 4.80 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 61% fair 1.64 best 1.62 · Betano 39% fair 2.56 best 2.37 · Betano
3.5 37% fair 2.70 best 2.50 · Bet365 63% fair 1.59 best 1.57 · Betano
All lines (7)
Line OverUnder
1.5 83% fair 1.21 best 1.20 · Betano 17% fair 5.87 best 4.80 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 61% fair 1.64 best 1.62 · Betano 39% fair 2.56 best 2.37 · Betano
2.75 1.80 fair best 1.67 · 1xBet 2.25 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet
3 2.06 fair best 1.98 · Betano 1.95 fair best 1.88 · Betano
3.25 2.37 fair best 2.13 · Marathonbet 1.73 fair best 1.60 · Marathonbet
3.5 37% fair 2.70 best 2.50 · Bet365 63% fair 1.59 best 1.57 · Betano
4.5 18% fair 5.57 best 4.33 · Bet365 82% fair 1.22 best 1.23 · Betano

Double chance
1X12X2
91% fair 1.10 best 1.08 · Betano 85% fair 1.18 best 1.17 · Bet365 24% fair 4.11 best 3.60 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line PAOKAsteras Tripolis
−2 2.78 fair best 2.50 · Betano 1.56 fair best 1.57 · Betano
−1.75 2.24 fair best 2.08 · Bet365 1.81 fair best 1.72 · 1xBet
−1.5 51% fair 1.95 best 1.87 · Betano 49% fair 2.05 best 1.98 · Betano
−1.25 1.71 fair best 1.65 · Bet365 2.41 fair best 2.20 · Bet365
−1 1.47 fair best 1.45 · Bet365 3.11 fair best 2.85 · Betano
All lines (10)
Line PAOKAsteras Tripolis
−2.75 4.17 fair best 3.70 · Bet365 1.32 fair best 1.26 · Bet365
−2.5 27% fair 3.65 best 3.20 · Betfair Sportsbook 73% fair 1.38 best 1.39 · Betano
−2.25 3.24 fair best 2.75 · Bet365 1.45 fair best 1.42 · Bet365
−2 2.78 fair best 2.50 · Betano 1.56 fair best 1.57 · Betano
−1.75 2.24 fair best 2.08 · Bet365 1.81 fair best 1.72 · 1xBet
−1.5 51% fair 1.95 best 1.87 · Betano 49% fair 2.05 best 1.98 · Betano
−1.25 1.71 fair best 1.65 · Bet365 2.41 fair best 2.20 · Bet365
−1 1.47 fair best 1.45 · Bet365 3.11 fair best 2.85 · Betano
−0.75 1.38 fair best 1.35 · Bet365 3.63 fair best 3.10 · Bet365
−0.5 76% fair 1.31 best 1.30 · Bet365 24% fair 4.18 best 3.45 · Bet365

Goals by team

PAOK goals

Line OverUnder
2.5 41% fair 2.42 best 2.25 · Betfair Sportsbook 59% fair 1.70 best 1.65 · Betano
All lines (3)
Line OverUnder
1.5 71% fair 1.40 best 1.39 · Betano 29% fair 3.49 best 3.00 · Bet365
2.5 41% fair 2.42 best 2.25 · Betfair Sportsbook 59% fair 1.70 best 1.65 · Betano
3.5 21% fair 4.74 best 4.00 · Bet365 79% fair 1.27 best 1.24 · Betano

Asteras Tripolis goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 52% fair 1.92 best 1.83 · Bet365 48% fair 2.09 best 2.00 · Betfair Sportsbook

First half

First-half result

1X2
57% fair 1.77 best 1.75 · Betano 33% fair 3.00 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook 10% fair 9.87 best 8.50 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.25 2.08 fair best 1.92 · 1xBet 1.92 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet
1.5 39% fair 2.58 best 2.35 · Betano 61% fair 1.63 best 1.60 · Betano
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.75 1.41 fair best 1.37 · 1xBet 3.44 fair best 2.78 · 1xBet
1 1.60 fair best 1.60 · Betano 2.66 fair best 2.37 · Betano
1.25 2.08 fair best 1.92 · 1xBet 1.92 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet
1.5 39% fair 2.58 best 2.35 · Betano 61% fair 1.63 best 1.60 · Betano
1.75 3.36 fair best 2.80 · 1xBet 1.42 fair best 1.34 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 2–012.7%fair 7.84
  2. 1–010.7%fair 9.38
  3. 3–010.4%fair 9.65
  4. 2–19.1%fair 11.03
  5. 3–17.4%fair 13.57
  6. 1–17.2%fair 13.85

Total goals

  • 04%
  • 114%
  • 221%
  • 322%
  • 4+39%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: PAOK at home, Asteras Tripolis away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesPAOKAsteras Tripolis
Goals scored per game 1.90 (1.60) 0.90
Goals conceded per game 1.50 (0.90) 1.60
Over 2.5 goals 80% (40%) 50%
Both teams scored 80% (50%) 60%
Clean sheets 20% (40%) 20%
Failed to score 0% (10%) 40%
xG for / against per game 1.86 / 1.50 1.08 / 1.52
Corners for / against per game 4.80 / 4.70 4.70 / 4.60
Cards per game 2.20 2.10

Over 2.5 goals: PAOK in 80% and Asteras Tripolis in 50% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 61% for this match.

From 10 matches for PAOK and 10 for Asteras Tripolis. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle

Detected ·
1 PAOK · soft 1.34 (Unibet (NL)) · fair 1.32 · edge +1.5%
Opening sharp
1.29

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

PAOK averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Asteras Tripolis averaged 1.2 and 1.8 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

PAOK
L W L W W
avg 1.8 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)
Asteras Tripolis
D L W D D
avg 1.2 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.29
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · PAOK
Odds when flagged 1.34
Fair odds 1.32
Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending
Value CLV —
Profit (units) —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 395683d670b1817f

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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