Eliteserien Sun, 01 Nov 2026 · 18:15 UTC

Valerenga vs Tromso

Fair price as of 16:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 17:50 UTC
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Most likely: Valerenga 38%
Over 2.5 goals: 63%
Most likely score 1–1 (11.1%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Valerenga the most likely outcome at 38% — fair odds of 2.63. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Valerenga: WWLDL; Tromso: LDDWL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Valerenga anyway? The best price we see is 2.55 at Betsson, -2.9% against the fair odds of 2.63. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 75%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	38%	25%	37%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	38%	25%	37%
Our model	32%	27%	41%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.33

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.50 / 3.71 / 2.56

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 3 hours ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.33

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 2.55 / 3.79 / 2.65

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 32 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	2.63	3.99	2.71
Pinnacle sharp	2.52	3.76	2.60
1xBet	2.52	3.79	2.59
BetVictor	2.40	3.60	2.50
Betano (UK) UK-only	2.40	3.60	2.50
Betclic (FR)	2.25	3.45	2.45
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	2.45	3.80 ★	2.45
Betfred (UK) UK-only	2.38	3.50	2.40
Betsson	2.55 ★	3.65	2.65 ★

Show all 32 bookmakers

Betway UK-only	2.40	3.60	2.50
BoyleSports UK-only	2.25	3.50	2.30
Casumo UK-only	2.50	3.60	2.55
Codere (IT)	2.37	3.55	2.50
Coolbet	2.53	3.75	2.64
GTbets	2.49	3.75	2.56
Grosvenor UK-only	2.43	3.50	2.48
LeoVegas UK-only	2.38	3.60	2.50
LeoVegas (SE)	2.50	3.60	2.55
LiveScore Bet UK-only	2.38	3.40	2.40
Marathonbet	2.45	3.70	2.52
Nordic Bet	2.50	3.60	2.60
PMU (FR)	2.38	3.40	2.40
Paddy Power UK-only	2.40	3.60	2.40
Sky Bet UK-only	2.30	3.40	2.30
Tipico	2.30	3.60	2.60
Unibet (FR)	2.15	3.40	2.40
Unibet (NL)	2.50	3.60	2.55
Unibet (SE)	2.50	3.60	2.55
Unibet (UK) UK-only	2.40	3.60	2.55
Virgin Bet UK-only	2.38	3.40	2.40
William Hill	2.45	3.50	2.50
Winamax (DE)	2.25	3.55	2.40
Winamax (FR)	2.25	3.45	2.35

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 02:46 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	85% fair 1.18 best 1.17 · Betano	15% fair 6.56 best 5.50 · Bet365
2.5	63% fair 1.58 best 1.55 · Betano	37% fair 2.72 best 2.50 · Bet365
3.5	41% fair 2.44 best 2.30 · 1xBet	59% fair 1.69 best 1.63 · 1xBet

All lines (7)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	85% fair 1.18 best 1.17 · Betano	15% fair 6.56 best 5.50 · Bet365
2.5	63% fair 1.58 best 1.55 · Betano	37% fair 2.72 best 2.50 · Bet365
2.75	1.71 fair best 1.63 · 1xBet	2.41 fair best 2.22 · 1xBet
3	1.90 fair best 1.83 · Betano	2.11 fair best 2.03 · SBO
3.25	2.17 fair best 2.09 · SBO	1.86 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet
3.5	41% fair 2.44 best 2.30 · 1xBet	59% fair 1.69 best 1.63 · 1xBet
4.5	22% fair 4.45 best 3.90 · BetVictor	78% fair 1.29 best 1.25 · Bet365

Double chance

1X	12	X2
63% fair 1.58 best 1.53 · Betano	75% fair 1.33 best 1.29 · William Hill	62% fair 1.61 best 1.57 · Bet365

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Valerenga	Tromso
−0.5	37% fair 2.67 best 2.45 · Betano	63% fair 1.60 best 1.60 · Bet365
−0.25	2.32 fair best 2.19 · SBO	1.76 fair best 1.75 · Bet365
0	1.96 fair best 1.88 · 1xBet	2.04 fair best 1.95 · Bet365
+0.25	1.71 fair best 1.65 · 1xBet	2.40 fair best 2.30 · Bet365
+0.5	64% fair 1.57 best 1.52 · Betano	36% fair 2.77 best 2.60 · Bet365

All lines (9)

Line	Valerenga	Tromso
−1	4.47 fair best 3.72 · 1xBet	1.29 fair best 1.30 · Bet365
−0.75	3.27 fair best 2.85 · 1xBet	1.44 fair best 1.45 · Bet365
−0.5	37% fair 2.67 best 2.45 · Betano	63% fair 1.60 best 1.60 · Bet365
−0.25	2.32 fair best 2.19 · SBO	1.76 fair best 1.75 · Bet365
0	1.96 fair best 1.88 · 1xBet	2.04 fair best 1.95 · Bet365
+0.25	1.71 fair best 1.65 · 1xBet	2.40 fair best 2.30 · Bet365
+0.5	64% fair 1.57 best 1.52 · Betano	36% fair 2.77 best 2.60 · Bet365
+0.75	1.42 fair best 1.37 · 1xBet	3.40 fair best 3.10 · Bet365
+1	1.27 fair best 1.24 · 1xBet	4.76 fair best 4.15 · Bet365

Goals by team

Valerenga goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	50% fair 2.01 best 2.00 · Betfair Sportsbook	50% fair 1.99 best 1.83 · Bet365

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	50% fair 2.01 best 2.00 · Betfair Sportsbook	50% fair 1.99 best 1.83 · Bet365
2.5	22% fair 4.51 best 4.00 · Betfair Sportsbook	78% fair 1.28 best 1.25 · Bet365

Tromso goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	47% fair 2.11 best 2.00 · Betfair Sportsbook	53% fair 1.90 best 1.80 · Bet365

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	47% fair 2.11 best 2.00 · Betfair Sportsbook	53% fair 1.90 best 1.80 · Bet365
2.5	20% fair 4.96 best 4.10 · BetVictor	80% fair 1.25 best 1.23 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
32% fair 3.15 best 2.92 · Betano	38% fair 2.65 best 2.50 · Bet365	31% fair 3.28 best 3.10 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	1.96 fair best 1.88 · SBO	2.04 fair best 1.94 · SBO
1.5	42% fair 2.40 best 2.30 · Betano	58% fair 1.71 best 1.62 · William Hill

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.37 fair best 1.35 · BetVictor	3.70 fair best 2.96 · 1xBet
1	1.54 fair best 1.57 · Betano	2.87 fair best 2.42 · 1xBet
1.25	1.96 fair best 1.88 · SBO	2.04 fair best 1.94 · SBO
1.5	42% fair 2.40 best 2.30 · Betano	58% fair 1.71 best 1.62 · William Hill
1.75	3.03 fair best 2.66 · 1xBet	1.49 fair best 1.44 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–111.1%fair 8.97
2–18.4%fair 11.92
1–28.2%fair 12.14
2–26.8%fair 14.77
1–05.4%fair 18.61
0–15.3%fair 19.00

Total goals

05%
111%
221%
322%
4+41%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Valerenga at home, Tromso away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Valerenga	Tromso
Goals scored per game	1.70 (2.20)	1.10 (2.30)
Goals conceded per game	2.20 (1.90)	2.10 (2.40)
Over 2.5 goals	70% (80%)	50% (80%)
Both teams scored	70% (80%)	60% (70%)
Clean sheets	10% (0%)	20% (10%)
Failed to score	20% (20%)	40% (20%)
xG for / against per game	1.75 / 1.87	1.09 / 1.19
Corners for / against per game	6.30 / 6.70	3.90 / 4.70
Cards per game	2.10	2.00

Over 2.5 goals: Valerenga in 70% and Tromso in 50% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 63% for this match.

From 10 matches for Valerenga and 10 for Tromso. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Valerenga averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Tromso averaged 1.8 and 2.4 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Valerenga has won its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Valerenga here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Valerenga

W W L D L

avg 1.2 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Tromso

L D D W L

avg 1.8 scored · 2.4 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

11 Jul 2026 Tromso 4–0 Valerenga

04 Oct 2025 Valerenga 1–0 Tromso

31 May 2025 Tromso 2–1 Valerenga

03 Dec 2023 Valerenga 1–1 Tromso

09 Jul 2023 Tromso 0–0 Valerenga

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 06:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.26

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint bbfc1c25e67e9899

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit