Danubio 1–1 Club Nacional
Half-time · Live score from API-Football, about a minute behind; the official result is confirmed after the match.
The match has started. Before kick-off the sharp market made Club Nacional the most likely outcome at 55% (fair odds 1.82). We make no new value calls once a match is under way. Recent form — Danubio: LWLWL; Club Nacional: LWWWW.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 22% | 26% | 52% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 23% | 26% | 51% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Starting line-ups
Danubio 4-3-1-2
- 1 M. Goicoechea GK
- 3 G. Rodriguez DF
- 19 M. Brasil DF
- 4 M. Rinaldi DF
- 6 L. Sosa DF
- 5 J. Millán MF
- 16 I. Rossi MF
- 14 Bautista Pereira FW
- 10 M. Peralta MF
- 77 B. Tomatis FW
- 7 E. Cabrera MF
Bench: E. Velázquez, J. Trasante, C. Tizón, S. Rodríguez, K. Martínez, D. Garcia, M. Ferreira, S. Fernández, E. Femia, I. Costantino
Coach: L. Rocco
Regular starters not in the XI
- Sebastián Rodríguez — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Club Nacional 3-4-1-2
- 22 A. Martín Arias GK
- 13 E. Ancheta DF
- 4 S. Coates DF
- 5 F. Calvo DF
- 15 G. Martirena DF
- 23 L. Rodríguez MF
- 8 S. Silva MF
- 21 C. Cándido DF
- 20 R. Botta MF
- 9 M. Gómez FW
- 29 T. Correa FW
Bench: B. Zuculini, T. Viera, T. Verón, M. Silvera, A. Rogel, N. Rodríguez, L. Gonzalez, nahuel gelos, A. Dos Santos, J. Bianchi
Coach: D. Carreño
Regular starters not in the XI
- Luciano Boggio — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
- L. Gonzalez — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Match context
Danubio averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Club Nacional averaged 1.6 and 0.6 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included
