Cruz Azul vs Leon
- Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
- Line-ups usually from
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The sharp market makes Cruz Azul the most likely outcome at 58% — fair odds of 1.72. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Cruz Azul: WWWDD; Leon: DWLDW.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check · No value at the current price · Flag recorded 26 Oct: 1 · Cruz Azul at +4.3%
Value check
We flagged +4.3% on 1 on 26 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.
Betting on Cruz Azul anyway? The best price we see is 1.68 at GTbets, -2.2% against the fair odds of 1.72. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp now | 58% | 22% | 20% |
Other estimates
| Sharp, recorded | 60% | 21% | 19% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 21% | 14% |
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Sharp now ·
Prices across 28 bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair line | 1.72 | 4.62 | 4.96 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1.67 | 4.26 | 4.56 |
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 4.15 | 4.32 |
| 888sport | 1.61 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.67 | 4.28 ★ | 4.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.61 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Betano (UK) UK-only | 1.61 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Coolbet | 1.65 | 4.20 | 4.75 ★ |
| GTbets | 1.68 ★ | 4.20 | 4.43 |
Show all 28 bookmakers
| Betclic (FR) | 1.55 | 3.88 | 4.20 |
| Betfred (UK) UK-only | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Betsson | 1.62 | 4.05 | 4.40 |
| BoyleSports UK-only | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Casumo UK-only | 1.67 | 3.95 | 4.20 |
| Grosvenor UK-only | 1.67 | 3.95 | 4.20 |
| LeoVegas UK-only | 1.62 | 4.10 | 4.30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.61 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| LiveScore Bet UK-only | 1.63 | 3.85 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 4.15 | 4.33 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.62 | 4.05 | 4.40 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.56 | 3.65 | 3.90 |
| Paddy Power UK-only | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| Sky Bet UK-only | 1.57 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Tipico | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.67 | 3.95 | 4.20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.67 | 3.95 | 4.20 |
| Unibet (UK) UK-only | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.35 |
| Virgin Bet UK-only | 1.63 | 3.85 | 4.10 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row
All markets at the fair price
Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).
Goals: over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% fair 1.18 best 1.16 · Betano | 15% fair 6.50 best 5.50 · Bet365 |
| 2.5 | 64% fair 1.57 best 1.52 · Betano | 36% fair 2.77 best 2.62 · Betano |
| 3.5 | 42% fair 2.40 best 2.25 · Betano | 58% fair 1.71 best 1.67 · Bet365 |
All lines (9)
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% fair 1.18 best 1.16 · Betano | 15% fair 6.50 best 5.50 · Bet365 |
| 2.5 | 64% fair 1.57 best 1.52 · Betano | 36% fair 2.77 best 2.62 · Betano |
| 2.75 | 1.68 fair best 1.57 · BetVictor | 2.47 fair best 2.24 · 1xBet |
| 3 | 1.86 fair best 1.78 · Betano | 2.16 fair best 2.10 · Betano |
| 3.25 | 2.13 fair best 1.97 · 1xBet | 1.88 fair best 1.76 · 1xBet |
| 3.5 | 42% fair 2.40 best 2.25 · Betano | 58% fair 1.71 best 1.67 · Bet365 |
| 3.75 | 2.79 fair best 2.50 · 1xBet | 1.56 fair best 1.48 · BetVictor |
| 4.5 | 23% fair 4.42 best 3.90 · BetVictor | 77% fair 1.29 best 1.29 · Betano |
| 5.5 | 10% fair 9.54 best 7.50 · BetVictor | 90% fair 1.12 best 1.12 · Betano |
Double chance
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
| 80% fair 1.25 best 1.23 · Betano | 78% fair 1.28 best 1.22 · William Hill | 42% fair 2.39 best 2.20 · Bet365 |
Asian handicap (home team line)
| Line | Cruz Azul | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| −1.25 | 2.58 fair best 2.35 · Bet365 | 1.63 fair best 1.58 · Bet365 |
| −1 | 2.23 fair best 2.15 · Betano | 1.82 fair best 1.75 · Bet365 |
| −0.75 | 1.92 fair best 1.80 · Bet365 | 2.09 fair best 2.00 · Bet365 |
| −0.5 | 58% fair 1.72 best 1.70 · Betano | 42% fair 2.38 best 2.22 · Betano |
| −0.25 | 1.52 fair best 1.48 · Bet365 | 2.91 fair best 2.60 · Bet365 |
All lines (10)
| Line | Cruz Azul | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| −2 | 4.75 fair best 4.15 · 1xBet | 1.27 fair best 1.23 · Bet365 |
| −1.75 | 3.65 fair best 3.10 · Bet365 | 1.38 fair best 1.35 · Bet365 |
| −1.5 | 34% fair 2.93 best 2.75 · Betano | 66% fair 1.52 best 1.48 · Bet365 |
| −1.25 | 2.58 fair best 2.35 · Bet365 | 1.63 fair best 1.58 · Bet365 |
| −1 | 2.23 fair best 2.15 · Betano | 1.82 fair best 1.75 · Bet365 |
| −0.75 | 1.92 fair best 1.80 · Bet365 | 2.09 fair best 2.00 · Bet365 |
| −0.5 | 58% fair 1.72 best 1.70 · Betano | 42% fair 2.38 best 2.22 · Betano |
| −0.25 | 1.52 fair best 1.48 · Bet365 | 2.91 fair best 2.60 · Bet365 |
| 0 | 1.33 fair best 1.30 · Bet365 | 4.01 fair best 3.45 · Bet365 |
| +0.25 | 1.28 fair best 1.24 · Bet365 | 4.61 fair best 3.90 · Bet365 |
Goals by team
Cruz Azul goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% fair 1.59 best 1.53 · Betano | 37% fair 2.68 best 2.50 · Bet365 |
All lines (2)
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% fair 1.59 best 1.53 · Betano | 37% fair 2.68 best 2.50 · Bet365 |
| 2.5 | 33% fair 3.00 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook | 67% fair 1.50 best 1.47 · Betano |
Leon goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 32% fair 3.10 best 2.75 · Betfair Sportsbook | 68% fair 1.48 best 1.47 · Betano |
All lines (2)
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 71% fair 1.40 best 1.36 · Bet365 | 29% fair 3.50 best 3.15 · Marathonbet |
| 1.5 | 32% fair 3.10 best 2.75 · Betfair Sportsbook | 68% fair 1.48 best 1.47 · Betano |
First half
First-half result
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 45% fair 2.22 best 2.20 · Betano | 36% fair 2.78 best 2.60 · Bet365 | 19% fair 5.25 best 4.60 · BetVictor |
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | 1.95 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet | 2.05 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet |
| 1.5 | 42% fair 2.39 best 2.25 · Betano | 58% fair 1.72 best 1.67 · Bet365 |
All lines (5)
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | 1.36 fair best 1.33 · BetVictor | 3.77 fair best 3.26 · 1xBet |
| 1 | 1.52 fair best 1.53 · Betano | 2.93 fair best 2.60 · 1xBet |
| 1.25 | 1.95 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet | 2.05 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet |
| 1.5 | 42% fair 2.39 best 2.25 · Betano | 58% fair 1.72 best 1.67 · Bet365 |
| 1.75 | 3.02 fair best 2.53 · 1xBet | 1.50 fair best 1.47 · 1xBet |
These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.
Most likely scores estimate
- 2–19.8%fair 10.22
- 1–19.8%fair 10.23
- 2–08.3%fair 12.06
- 1–07.3%fair 13.61
- 3–16.9%fair 14.52
- 3–05.8%fair 17.14
Total goals
- 04%
- 111%
- 221%
- 322%
- 4+42%
Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →
Team stats: recent matches
Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Cruz Azul at home, Leon away.
| Team statistics, recent matches | Cruz Azul | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 2.40 (2.00) | 1.50 (1.20) |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.50 (1.40) | 1.30 (1.30) |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% (60%) | 30% (40%) |
| Both teams scored | 60% (50%) | 70% (70%) |
| Clean sheets | 20% (40%) | 30% (20%) |
| Failed to score | 20% (20%) | 0% (10%) |
| xG for / against per game | 2.01 / 1.16 | 1.67 / 1.50 |
| Corners for / against per game | 6.00 / 5.60 | 3.60 / 6.50 |
| Cards per game | 1.90 | 2.00 |
Over 2.5 goals: Cruz Azul in 70% and Leon in 30% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 64% for this match.
From 10 matches for Cruz Azul and 10 for Leon. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.
Value lifecycle Value expired
“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.
Match context
Cruz Azul averaged 3.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Leon averaged 1.8 and 1.6 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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