Hellas Verona 3–0 Carrarese
Final score · Half-time 3–0 · All of yesterday's results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Hellas Verona was the most likely outcome at 59% (fair odds 1.70). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Hellas Verona: WDDLW; Carrarese: WLWWL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 10' 1–0 Abdou Harroui · goal · assist Gabriele Zappa · Hellas Verona
- 22' 2–0 Daniel Mosquera · goal · Hellas Verona
- 38' 3–0 Amin Sarr · goal · assist Kacper Sezonienko · Hellas Verona
- 64' Dailon Livramento · yellow card · Hellas Verona
Match stats
| Match stats | Hellas Verona | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 42 | 58 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.22 | 0.98 |
| Shots | 12 | 16 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 5 |
| Corners | 5 | 9 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 0 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 13 | 7 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 5 | 2 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Hellas Verona win 57% happened
- Draw 24% did not happen
- Carrarese win 19% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Hellas Verona 4-2-3-1
- 34 S. Perilli GK
- 4 G. Zappa DF
- 28 T. Slotsager DF
- 5 A. Edmundsson DF
- 3 M. Frese DF
- 17 A. Le Borgne MF
- 24 A. Bernede MF
- 79 K. Sezonienko MF
- 21 A. Harroui MF
- 9 A. Sarr MF
- 25 D. Mosquera FW
Bench: F. Cham, R. Akale, N. Leali, N. Tagne, N. Calabrese, P. Dawidowicz, E. Iannoni, N. Lella, G. Kastanos, D. Livramento, S. Mulattieri, C. Ekuban
Coach: M. Baroni
Regular starters not in the XI
- E. Iannoni — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- D. Livramento — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- D. De Battisti — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Carrarese 3-5-2
- 1 S. Pizzignacco GK
- 13 F. Ruggeri DF
- 6 F. Oliana DF
- 33 F. Reale DF
- 23 M. Braunöder MF
- 77 G. Parlanti MF
- 18 Nicolás Schiavi MF
- 17 L. Topalović MF
- 73 J. Rouhi MF
- 9 F. Abiuso FW
- 91 G. Marconi FW
Bench: Tommaso Guercio, T. Macchioni, Gonçalo Esteves, L. Romani, J. Martini, Y. Khafi, N. Cudrig, T. Rubino, M. Cissé, M. Finotto, N. Ravaglia, G. Garofani
Coach: G. Pagliuca
Regular starters not in the XI
- T. Rubino — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 57 / 24 / 19% when the line-ups came out, 57 / 24 / 19% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 59% | 22% | 19% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Hellas Verona averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Carrarese averaged 1.4 and 1.0 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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