Deportivo La Coruna — Osasuna
The match has started. Before kick-off the sharp market made Deportivo La Coruna the most likely outcome at 46% (fair odds 2.17). We make no new value calls once a match is under way. Recent form — Deportivo La Coruna: LDLDL; Osasuna: LWLDL.
After the whistle
Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 Osasuna half-time 0–1
Goals and cards
- 32' 0–1 Ante Budimir · goal · assist Moi Gómez · Osasuna
- 35' Moi Gómez · yellow card · Osasuna
- 63' Alejandro Catena · yellow card · Osasuna
- 64' 1–1 Mario Soriano · goal · assist Luismi Cruz · Deportivo La Coruna
- 81' Abel Bretones · yellow card · Osasuna
- 84' Enrique Barja Alfonso · yellow card · Osasuna
- 87' 2–1 Bil Nsongo · goal · Deportivo La Coruna
Match stats
| Match stats | Deportivo La Coruna | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 62 | 38 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 2.39 | 1.12 |
| Shots | 18 | 11 |
| Shots on target | 7 | 2 |
| Corners | 8 | 2 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 5 | 13 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 5 |
Provisional stats from the final whistle; the final numbers replace them within a day.
What the market said before kick-off
- Value flag before kick-off: 1 · Deportivo La Coruna @ 2.28 (1xBet) Pending
Its CLV against the fair close follows, usually within an hour or two of the final whistle.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Deportivo La Coruna 4-4-2
- 13 Leo Román GK
- 2 Adrià Alti DF
- 15 Miguel Loureiro DF
- 20 J. Giménez DF
- 12 G. Quagliata DF
- 11 David Mella MF
- 16 L. Amatucci MF
- 21 Mario Soriano MF
- 10 Peke MF
- 19 Luismi Cruz FW
- 32 B. Nsongo FW
Bench: Noé, P. Aubameyang, Diego Villares, Arnau Comas, Angeliño, Álvaro Fernández, Jonathan Asp Jensen, Ximo Navarro, L. Noubi, Riki Rodríguez, Kevin Sánchez, Adama Traoré
Coach: Antonio Hidalgo
Osasuna 4-3-3
- 1 Sergio Herrera GK
- 19 V. Rosier DF
- 22 F. Boyomo DF
- 24 Catena DF
- 23 Abel Bretones DF
- 7 Moncayola MF
- 8 Iker Muñoz MF
- 16 Moi Gómez MF
- 18 Raul Moro FW
- 17 A. Budimir FW
- 21 Jonathan Dubasin FW
Bench: Diego Rico, Asier Osambela, Raúl García, Rubén García, Rafa Fernández, Aitor Fernández, Mauro Echegoyen, Kike Barja, Íñigo Arguibide, U. Santos, Lucas Torró, R. Yeboah
Coach: Arrasate
Regular starters not in the XI
- Aitor Fernández — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- Rubén García — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
The match has started. This flag was recorded before kick-off and is settled against the closing price after the final whistle.
The market's two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 45% | 29% | 26% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 50% | 25% | 26% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Deportivo La Coruna averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Osasuna averaged 1.0 and 2.4 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Value lifecycle
“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.
Public, timestamped record
Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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- Free football predictions dataset with closing odds (CSV)
- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included
