Athletic Club 2–1 Ceara
90+3' · Live score from API-Football, about a minute behind; the official result is confirmed after the match.
The match has started. Before kick-off the sharp market made Athletic Club the most likely outcome at 38% (fair odds 2.62). We make no new value calls once a match is under way. Recent form — Athletic Club: WWLLD; Ceara: LDLWW.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
The match has started. This flag was recorded before kick-off and is settled against the closing price after the final whistle.
The market's two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 40% | 29% | 31% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 45% | 29% | 26% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Starting line-ups
Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
- 1 Luan Polli GK
- 22 Diogo Batista DF
- 3 J. Torres DF
- 4 Lucas Belezi DF
- 23 Enzo DF
- 5 Felipe Negrucci MF
- 15 Jota MF
- 16 João Miguel MF
- 17 Kauan MF
- 10 Assis MF
- 9 Carlinhos FW
Bench: W. Aponza, G. Cabezas, Douglas Pelé, Max, Pedro Oliveira, Philipe Sampaio, D. Vera, Yago Santos, Yarlen, Zeca, Tony, Bruninho
Coach: Alex
Regular starters not in the XI
- Jhonatan — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- Max — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Ceara 4-2-3-1
- 1 Richard GK
- 31 Bryan DF
- 13 Luiz Otávio DF
- 71 Gabriel Silva Rocha DF
- 33 Éder DF
- 26 Richardson MF
- 25 Vinicius Zanocelo MF
- 60 Enzo Lodovico MF
- 40 Richard MF
- 77 Lenny Lobato MF
- 73 Saulo Mineiro FW
Bench: Kaiky Cabral Leão, N. Ferreira, Rian Santana, Rafael Ramos, Caíque França, Vina, Lucca, R. López, L. Mugni, P. Esli, Matheus Araújo, Sávio
Coach: Daniel Paulista
Regular starters not in the XI
- Joao Gabriel — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
- Sanchez — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- Matheus Araújo — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Match context
Athletic Club averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Ceara averaged 0.8 and 1.0 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Value lifecycle
“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.
Public, timestamped record
Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included
