Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Brazil Serie B fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.
Reconstructed from the matches in the TipsAudit dataset — not an official league table. Teams may show a different number of games played, and play-off or play-out stages are not separated. For the official table, use the league's own source.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 40 |
| 2 | Juventude | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 35 |
| 3 | Operario-PR | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 25 | +3 | 35 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 34 |
| 5 | Vila Nova | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 24 | +3 | 34 |
| 6 | Novorizontino | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 19 | +13 | 33 |
| 7 | Atletico Goianiense | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 31 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 20 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 29 |
| 9 | CRB | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 29 |
| 10 | Goias | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 29 |
| 11 | Athletic Club | 20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 28 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 28 | 23 | +5 | 27 |
| 13 | Nautico Recife | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 24 | +0 | 25 |
| 14 | Cuiaba | 20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 15 | +0 | 25 |
| 15 | Botafogo SP | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 24 |
| 16 | Ceara | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 22 |
| 17 | Londrina | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 20 |
| 18 | Avai | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 20 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 31 | -17 | 11 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 39 | -24 | 9 |
| # | Team | Avg. finish | P(title) | P(relegation) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 2.7 | 44.7% | 0% |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 5.5 | 11.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | Operario-PR | 6.4 | 8.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | Atletico Goianiense | 6.6 | 6.9% | 0.9% |
| 5 | CRB | 6.8 | 7.3% | 0.9% |
| 6 | Juventude | 6.9 | 6.8% | 1% |
| 7 | Novorizontino | 7.9 | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| 8 | Goias | 8 | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| 9 | Athletic Club | 9.4 | 2.2% | 3.7% |
| 10 | Vila Nova | 10 | 1.5% | 5.2% |
| 11 | Botafogo SP | 10.2 | 1.5% | 4.7% |
| 12 | Avai | 11.2 | 0.9% | 8.5% |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 12.3 | 0.5% | 13.1% |
| 14 | Ceara | 12.5 | 0.5% | 13.3% |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 14.5 | 0% | 27.1% |
| 16 | Sport Recife | 14.6 | 0% | 27.5% |
| 17 | São Bernardo | 15 | 0.1% | 32.2% |
| 18 | Londrina | 15.1 | 0% | 32.1% |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 15.2 | 0% | 34.7% |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 19.3 | 0% | 90.4% |
How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.
The sharpest public forecast for Brazil Serie B is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Brazil Serie B fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.
We publish an audit, not tips. For each Brazil Serie B match you get the fair price and an honest value check; every prediction is logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.