Brazil

Brazil Serie B predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Brazil Serie B fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated at 23:24 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Fri · 22:30 UTC	Operario-PRSport Recife	41% 2.32 fair 2.43	28% 3.50 fair 3.57	31% 2.96 fair 3.25	Value expired
Sat · 00:30 UTC	CuiabaJuventude	34% fair 2.90	30% fair 3.34	36% fair 2.81	Not checked yet
Sat · 19:00 UTC	AvaiSão Bernardo	44% 2.08 fair 2.27	29% 3.30 fair 3.48	27% 3.70 fair 3.67	No value
Sat · 19:10 UTC	NovorizontinoFortaleza EC	52% 1.82 fair 1.94	27% 3.60 fair 3.66	21% 4.60 fair 4.76	No value
Sun · 19:00 UTC	Athletic ClubAtletico Goianiense	25% 3.80 fair 4.06	26% 3.40 fair 3.82	49% 1.98 fair 2.03	No value
Sun · 22:15 UTC	CearaAmerica Mineiro	58% 1.65 fair 1.72	24% 3.85 fair 4.10	18% 5.90 fair 5.71	No value

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
02 Nov	Athletic Club – Ceara	2–1	38%
02 Nov	Fortaleza EC – Atletico Goianiense	0–0	28%
01 Nov	Novorizontino – Operario-PR	2–1	73%
01 Nov	Cuiaba – São Bernardo	1–2	17%
01 Nov	Londrina – America Mineiro	1–3	28%
31 Oct	Nautico Recife – Avai	1–0	49%
31 Oct	Vila Nova – Juventude	2–2	32%
31 Oct	Botafogo SP – Sport Recife	1–1	28%
30 Oct	Criciuma – Ponte Preta	2–0	91%
27 Oct	Ceara – Goias	0–2	29%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Brazil Serie B

Across the matches we priced in Brazil Serie B, the market's average 1X2 margin is 8.43%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 4.17%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 23:58 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Novorizontino	36	19	10	7	64	31	+33	67
2	Juventude	36	18	11	7	47	25	+22	65
3	Vila Nova	36	18	9	9	52	38	+14	63
4	Criciuma	36	18	8	10	38	30	+8	62
5	Fortaleza EC	36	16	14	6	43	31	+12	62
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	53	49	+4	55
7	Sport Recife	36	14	13	9	48	39	+9	55
8	Atletico Goianiense	36	14	13	9	42	33	+9	55
9	Goias	35	15	7	13	36	40	-4	52
10	São Bernardo	36	14	10	12	51	40	+11	52
11	Operario-PR	36	14	9	13	46	48	-2	51
12	Botafogo SP	36	13	9	14	41	39	+2	48
13	Cuiaba	36	11	14	11	33	30	+3	47
14	Athletic Club	36	11	14	11	42	41	+1	47
15	Nautico Recife	36	12	10	14	40	46	-6	46
16	Ceara	36	11	10	15	38	46	-8	43
17	Avai	36	10	7	19	33	46	-13	37
18	Londrina	36	8	8	20	45	54	-9	32
19	America Mineiro	36	7	5	24	26	55	-29	26
20	Ponte Preta	36	3	6	27	21	78	-57	15

Team stats this season

357 matches this season: 2.34 goals per game, 43% over 2.5, 47% both teams scored. xG 2.37 per match (from 284 matches); 10.7 corners and 4.8 cards per match (from 352 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Londrina	36	1.25	1.50	64%	56%	22%	1.27 / 1.39	11.2	2.4
CRB	35	1.51	1.40	63%	57%	23%	1.46 / 1.22	10.7	1.9
Operario-PR	36	1.28	1.33	61%	53%	33%	1.02 / 1.18	10.7	2.5
Novorizontino	36	1.78	0.86	58%	53%	36%	1.47 / 0.97	11.0	2.1
São Bernardo	36	1.42	1.11	50%	61%	25%	1.09 / 1.27	11.2	2.2
Sport Recife	36	1.33	1.08	50%	67%	28%	1.28 / 1.20	11.1	2.2
America Mineiro	36	0.72	1.53	47%	42%	17%	1.11 / 1.48	11.1	2.1
Avai	36	0.92	1.28	42%	44%	25%	0.87 / 1.21	10.4	2.9
Ponte Preta	36	0.58	2.17	42%	42%	8%	0.92 / 1.81	10.8	3.2
Athletic Club	35	1.14	1.14	40%	57%	26%	1.00 / 1.37	9.7	2.6
Vila Nova	36	1.44	1.06	39%	42%	39%	1.12 / 1.06	10.2	2.6
Botafogo SP	36	1.14	1.08	39%	50%	25%	1.06 / 1.02	12.3	2.4
Nautico Recife	36	1.11	1.28	39%	42%	28%	1.34 / 1.33	10.6	2.7
Fortaleza EC	35	1.23	0.89	37%	46%	43%	1.23 / 0.94	10.3	2.4
Atletico Goianiense	35	1.20	0.94	37%	49%	34%	1.54 / 1.09	11.5	2.3
Ceara	35	1.06	1.26	37%	51%	20%	1.09 / 1.35	10.5	2.3
Juventude	36	1.31	0.69	36%	28%	64%	1.20 / 1.03	8.8	2.2
Goias	35	1.03	1.14	34%	37%	29%	1.18 / 1.14	10.5	2.4
Cuiaba	36	0.92	0.83	25%	33%	39%	1.22 / 0.78	9.6	1.9
Criciuma	36	1.06	0.83	22%	33%	47%	1.17 / 0.82	10.8	2.3

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Juventude	2.6	32.5%	0%
2	CRB	3.3	22.3%	0%
3	Fortaleza EC	3.7	19.3%	0%
4	Vila Nova	4.5	9.2%	0%
5	Atletico Goianiense	4.5	8.4%	0%
6	Novorizontino	4.9	7.2%	0%
7	Criciuma	8	0.5%	0%
8	Goias	8.6	0.2%	0%
9	Cuiaba	9.2	0.2%	0%
10	Ceara	9.8	0.1%	0%
11	Sport Recife	11.1	0%	0%
12	Avai	12.7	0%	0.3%
13	Operario-PR	13.2	0%	0.5%
14	Botafogo SP	13.2	0%	0.7%
15	Athletic Club	13.6	0%	1.7%
16	Nautico Recife	15	0%	3.3%
17	São Bernardo	15.1	0%	3%
18	Londrina	18.2	0%	92.2%
19	America Mineiro	18.7	0%	98.2%
20	Ponte Preta	20	0%	100%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Brazil Serie B predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Brazil Serie B is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Brazil Serie B fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Brazil Serie B betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Brazil Serie B match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit