Primera A Fri, 06 Nov 2026 · 23:00 UTC

Chico vs Internacional de Bogota

Fair price as of 08:04 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 22:35 UTC
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Most likely: Chico 38%
Over 2.5 goals: 44%
Most likely score 1–1 (13.5%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Chico the most likely outcome at 38% — fair odds of 2.65. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no price here worth taking. Recent form — Chico: LDWLL; Internacional de Bogota: WLWDD.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value

Value check

No value

No measurable value here: no bookmaker's odds beat the fair price, so there is no price worth taking.

Betting on Chico anyway? The best price we see is 2.60 at Betano, -2.0% against the fair odds of 2.65. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

The market's two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 71%

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	38%	29%	34%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	40%	28%	32%
Our model	37%	29%	34%

Fair odds (as recorded) 1.39

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.39 / 3.32 / 2.95

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 3 hours ago

Fair odds now 1.40

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 2.60 / 3.24 / 2.77

Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 7 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	2.65	3.51	2.96
Pinnacle sharp	2.52	3.28	2.79
1xBet	2.42	3.24 ★	2.74
Bet365	2.55	3.10	2.70
Betano	2.60 ★	3.10	2.77
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	2.45	3.20	2.80 ★
Marathonbet	2.42	3.24 ★	2.74
William Hill	2.45	3.10	2.75

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 08:04 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	72% fair 1.39 best 1.36 · Betano	28% fair 3.58 best 3.25 · Bet365
2.5	44% fair 2.26 best 2.10 · Betano	56% fair 1.80 best 1.75 · Bet365
3.5	22% fair 4.47 best 3.58 · 1xBet	78% fair 1.29 best 1.28 · Bet365

All lines (7)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	72% fair 1.39 best 1.36 · Betano	28% fair 3.58 best 3.25 · Bet365
1.75	1.48 fair best 1.40 · 1xBet	3.07 fair best 2.66 · 1xBet
2	1.64 fair best 1.60 · Betano	2.57 fair best 2.32 · Betano
2.25	1.95 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet	2.05 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet
2.5	44% fair 2.26 best 2.10 · Betano	56% fair 1.80 best 1.75 · Bet365
2.75	2.65 fair best 2.35 · 1xBet	1.60 fair best 1.52 · 1xBet
3.5	22% fair 4.47 best 3.58 · 1xBet	78% fair 1.29 best 1.28 · Bet365

Double chance

1X	12	X2
66% fair 1.51 best 1.47 · Betano	71% fair 1.40 best 1.36 · Bet365	62% fair 1.60 best 1.52 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Chico	Internacional de Bogota
−0.5	37% fair 2.73 best 2.52 · Betano	63% fair 1.58 best 1.50 · Bet365
−0.25	2.32 fair best 2.20 · Bet365	1.76 fair best 1.67 · 1xBet
0	1.90 fair best 1.82 · Bet365	2.11 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.63 fair best 1.58 · Bet365	2.58 fair best 2.35 · Bet365
+0.5	67% fair 1.49 best 1.45 · Bet365	33% fair 3.04 best 2.68 · Bet365

All lines (10)

Line	Chico	Internacional de Bogota
−1.25	5.40 fair best 4.65 · Bet365	1.23 fair best 1.18 · Bet365
−1	5.18 fair best 4.25 · Bet365	1.24 fair best 1.21 · Bet365
−0.75	3.47 fair best 3.10 · Bet365	1.40 fair best 1.35 · Bet365
−0.5	37% fair 2.73 best 2.52 · Betano	63% fair 1.58 best 1.50 · Bet365
−0.25	2.32 fair best 2.20 · Bet365	1.76 fair best 1.67 · 1xBet
0	1.90 fair best 1.82 · Bet365	2.11 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.63 fair best 1.58 · Bet365	2.58 fair best 2.35 · Bet365
+0.5	67% fair 1.49 best 1.45 · Bet365	33% fair 3.04 best 2.68 · Bet365
+0.75	1.34 fair best 1.32 · Bet365	3.96 fair best 3.32 · 1xBet
+1	1.19 fair best 1.18 · Bet365	6.13 fair best 4.95 · 1xBet

Goals by team

Chico goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	35% fair 2.89 best 2.50 · Bet365	65% fair 1.53 best 1.53 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	74% fair 1.35 best 1.34 · Betano	26% fair 3.85 best 3.40 · Bet365
1.5	35% fair 2.89 best 2.50 · Bet365	65% fair 1.53 best 1.53 · 1xBet

Internacional de Bogota goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	32% fair 3.12 best 2.75 · Betfair Sportsbook	68% fair 1.47 best 1.45 · Betano

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	72% fair 1.39 best 1.37 · 1xBet	28% fair 3.54 best 3.25 · Bet365
1.5	32% fair 3.12 best 2.75 · Betfair Sportsbook	68% fair 1.47 best 1.45 · Betano

First half

Line	Over	Under
1	2.14 fair best 2.10 · Betano	1.88 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–113.5%fair 7.39
1–010.3%fair 9.69
0–19.6%fair 10.38
0–09.2%fair 10.82
2–18.2%fair 12.23
1–27.7%fair 13.05

Total goals

09%
120%
227%
321%
4+23%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Chico at home, Internacional de Bogota away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Chico	Internacional de Bogota
Goals scored per game	0.70 (1.40)	1.50 (0.80)
Goals conceded per game	1.50 (0.90)	1.50 (2.00)
Over 2.5 goals	40% (50%)	60% (50%)
Both teams scored	30% (40%)	70% (60%)
Clean sheets	30% (50%)	10% (20%)
Failed to score	50% (20%)	30% (40%)
xG for / against per game	0.92 / 0.85	1.08 / 1.40
Corners for / against per game	5.89 / 4.11	4.30 / 6.70
Cards per game	2.78	2.90

Over 2.5 goals: Chico in 40% and Internacional de Bogota in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 44% for this match.

From 10 matches for Chico and 10 for Internacional de Bogota. xG, corners and cards: 9 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Chico averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Internacional de Bogota averaged 1.6 and 1.2 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Chico

L D W L L

avg 0.6 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)

Internacional de Bogota

W L W D D

avg 1.6 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

27 Apr 2026 Internacional de Bogota 4–0 Chico

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Wed, 28 Oct 2026 · 06:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.32

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint d6cca61e9c7959f7

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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