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Sevilla vs Alaves

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
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The sharp market makes Sevilla the most likely outcome at 50% — fair odds of 1.98. 1xBet offers 2.05, a market gap of +3.3% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Strong value). Confidence is High and model agreement is High. Recent form — Sevilla: LWLDL; Alaves: LDLLD.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity Strong value

1 Sevilla @ 2.05
Bookmaker 1xBet
Price observed
Flag recorded @ 2.17 (Unibet (NL)) · recorded live, before kick-off
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.
Fair price 1.98
1xBet 2.05
Market Gap +3.3%
Confidence High
Model agreement High

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Edge at detection +1.1% @ 2.17 ·
Edge right now +3.3% @ 2.05 ·

The gap has held since we flagged it: both the sharp benchmark and the soft price are re-read continuously, and the edge above is computed on the current market, not on the odds we saw at detection.

Market discrepancy: Sevilla (1) is priced at 2.05 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 1.98 — a +3.3% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

The market's two most likely results

1/X Home or draw 78%

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp now50%27%22%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded47%29%25%
Our model46%27%27%
Fair odds (as recorded) 1.33
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.07 / 3.30 / 3.77

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds now 1.29
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 2.05 / 3.50 / 4.50
Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 38 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 1.983.664.49
Pinnacle sharp 1.94 3.51 4.28
1xBet 2.05 ★ 3.48 4.15
BetOnline.ag 1.93 3.50 ★ 4.31
Coolbet 1.95 3.35 4.50 ★
Marathonbet 2.00 3.40 4.05
Tipico 1.85 3.50 ★ 4.30
Unibet (NL) 1.97 3.50 ★ 4.20
Unibet (SE) 2.00 3.50 ★ 4.20
Show all 38 bookmakers
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 1.98 3.50 4.60
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 1.98 3.50 4.60
Matchbook exchange 1.98 3.50 4.60
Smarkets exchange 1.98 3.45 4.60
BetVictor 1.87 3.25 4.00
Betano (UK) UK-only 1.87 3.25 4.00
Betclic (FR) 1.85 3.28 3.93
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only 1.91 3.40 4.40
Betfred (UK) UK-only 1.95 3.40 4.00
Betsson 1.92 3.35 4.15
BoyleSports UK-only 1.87 3.25 4.00
Casumo UK-only 1.94 3.40 4.00
Codere (IT) 1.97 3.35 4.10
Coral UK-only 1.95 3.40 4.00
Everygame 1.85 3.30 3.90
Grosvenor UK-only 1.93 3.35 3.95
Ladbrokes UK-only 1.95 3.30 4.00
LeoVegas UK-only 1.92 3.30 3.85
LeoVegas (SE) 1.91 3.25 3.85
LiveScore Bet UK-only 1.91 3.25 3.85
Nordic Bet 1.92 3.35 4.10
PMU (FR) 1.88 3.20 3.75
Paddy Power UK-only 1.87 3.30 4.20
Sky Bet UK-only 1.85 3.25 4.20
Unibet (FR) 1.75 3.20 3.90
Unibet (UK) UK-only 1.95 3.40 4.00
Virgin Bet UK-only 1.89 3.20 3.80
William Hill 1.95 3.20 4.00
Winamax (DE) 1.88 3.45 3.90
Winamax (FR) 1.84 3.35 3.80

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 70% fair 1.42 best 1.42 · Betano 30% fair 3.37 best 3.20 · Bet365
2.5 43% fair 2.32 best 2.28 · 1xBet 57% fair 1.76 best 1.73 · 1xBet
All lines (9)
Line OverUnder
1.25 1.27 fair best 1.25 · BetVictor 4.68 fair best 3.90 · 1xBet
1.5 70% fair 1.42 best 1.42 · Betano 30% fair 3.37 best 3.20 · Bet365
1.75 1.52 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet 2.91 fair best 2.60 · 1xBet
2 1.69 fair best 1.67 · Betano 2.45 fair best 2.27 · Betano
2.25 2.00 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet 2.00 fair best 1.89 · 1xBet
2.5 43% fair 2.32 best 2.28 · 1xBet 57% fair 1.76 best 1.73 · 1xBet
2.75 2.75 fair best 2.68 · 1xBet 1.57 fair best 1.56 · 1xBet
3 3.57 fair best 3.31 · 1xBet 1.39 fair best 1.36 · 1xBet
3.25 4.07 fair best 3.66 · 1xBet 1.33 fair best 1.29 · 1xBet

Double chance
1X12X2
78% fair 1.29 best 1.27 · 1xBet 73% fair 1.38 best 1.35 · 1xBet 50% fair 2.02 best 1.87 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line SevillaAlaves
−1 3.08 fair best 3.00 · 1xBet 1.48 fair best 1.44 · Betano
−0.75 2.35 fair best 2.39 · 1xBet 1.74 fair best 1.68 · 1xBet
−0.5 50% fair 2.00 best 1.95 · Betano 50% fair 2.00 best 1.92 · Bet365
−0.25 1.72 fair best 1.71 · 1xBet 2.39 fair best 2.20 · Bet365
0 1.43 fair best 1.46 · 1xBet 3.30 fair best 3.02 · 1xBet
All lines (9)
Line SevillaAlaves
−1.5 24% fair 4.19 best 3.86 · 1xBet 76% fair 1.31 best 1.27 · Bet365
−1.25 3.65 fair best 3.46 · 1xBet 1.38 fair best 1.35 · Bet365
−1 3.08 fair best 3.00 · 1xBet 1.48 fair best 1.44 · Betano
−0.75 2.35 fair best 2.39 · 1xBet 1.74 fair best 1.68 · 1xBet
−0.5 50% fair 2.00 best 1.95 · Betano 50% fair 2.00 best 1.92 · Bet365
−0.25 1.72 fair best 1.71 · 1xBet 2.39 fair best 2.20 · Bet365
0 1.43 fair best 1.46 · 1xBet 3.30 fair best 3.02 · 1xBet
+0.25 1.33 fair best 1.31 · 1xBet 4.00 fair best 3.45 · Bet365
+0.5 79% fair 1.27 best 1.24 · Bet365 21% fair 4.69 best 3.90 · Bet365

Goals by team

Sevilla goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 44% fair 2.28 best 2.20 · Betfair Sportsbook 56% fair 1.78 best 1.70 · 1xBet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 80% fair 1.25 best 1.25 · Bet365 20% fair 5.04 best 4.10 · Marathonbet
1.5 44% fair 2.28 best 2.20 · Betfair Sportsbook 56% fair 1.78 best 1.70 · 1xBet

Alaves goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 63% fair 1.60 best 1.57 · 1xBet 37% fair 2.67 best 2.44 · Marathonbet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 63% fair 1.60 best 1.57 · 1xBet 37% fair 2.67 best 2.44 · Marathonbet
1.5 23% fair 4.34 best 3.80 · BetVictor 77% fair 1.30 best 1.29 · Marathonbet

First half

First-half result

1X2
36% fair 2.74 best 2.65 · 1xBet 44% fair 2.26 best 2.10 · Bet365 19% fair 5.21 best 4.75 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 67% fair 1.50 best 1.52 · Betano 33% fair 3.02 best 2.75 · Betfair Sportsbook
1 2.21 fair best 2.18 · Betano 1.83 fair best 1.75 · 1xBet
1.5 27% fair 3.65 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook 73% fair 1.38 best 1.36 · 1xBet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.5 67% fair 1.50 best 1.52 · Betano 33% fair 3.02 best 2.75 · Betfair Sportsbook
0.75 1.71 fair best 1.66 · 1xBet 2.41 fair best 2.20 · 1xBet
1 2.21 fair best 2.18 · Betano 1.83 fair best 1.75 · 1xBet
1.25 2.90 fair best 2.56 · 1xBet 1.53 fair best 1.49 · 1xBet
1.5 27% fair 3.65 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook 73% fair 1.38 best 1.36 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–012.9%fair 7.74
  2. 1–112.9%fair 7.78
  3. 2–010.1%fair 9.88
  4. 0–09.6%fair 10.40
  5. 2–19.2%fair 10.89
  6. 0–17.6%fair 13.16

Total goals

  • 010%
  • 121%
  • 227%
  • 321%
  • 4+22%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Sevilla at home, Alaves away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesSevillaAlaves
Goals scored per game 1.50 (1.20) 1.20 (1.40)
Goals conceded per game 1.80 (1.20) 1.70 (2.00)
Over 2.5 goals 60% (50%) 50% (60%)
Both teams scored 70% (50%) 70% (80%)
Clean sheets 30% (30%) 20% (20%)
Failed to score 0% (20%) 20% (10%)
xG for / against per game 0.92 / 1.39 1.18 / 1.48
Corners for / against per game 3.50 / 3.50 3.90 / 4.90
Cards per game 3.00 1.70

Over 2.5 goals: Sevilla in 60% and Alaves in 50% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 43% for this match.

From 10 matches for Sevilla and 10 for Alaves. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Sevilla averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Alaves averaged 0.8 and 2.2 over 5.

Since opening around 2.10, the sharp market price on Sevilla has shortened to 1.94 — the market has moved towards this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Alaves is winless in its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Alaves here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Sevilla
L W L D L
avg 1.6 scored · 2.6 conceded (last 5)
Alaves
L D L L D
avg 0.8 scored · 2.2 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
14 Feb 2026 Sevilla 1–1 Alaves
20 Sep 2025 Alaves 1–2 Sevilla
20 Apr 2025 Sevilla 1–1 Alaves
20 Sep 2024 Alaves 2–1 Sevilla
12 Jan 2024 Sevilla 2–3 Alaves

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Value lifecycle Value improving

Detected ·
1 Sevilla · soft 2.17 (Unibet (NL)) · fair 2.15 · edge +1.1%
Opening sharp
2.10
Current Value improving
soft 2.05 · sharp 1.94 · fair 1.98 · edge +3.3%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/X · Home or draw
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.27
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Sevilla
Odds when flagged 2.17
Fair odds 2.15
Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending
Value CLV —
Profit (units) —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 4330accd76262fda

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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