Lugo 2–1 Mérida AD
Final score · Half-time 2–0 · Latest results
At kick-off Pinnacle, with its margin removed, made Lugo the most likely outcome at 44%: fair odds of 2.27.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 20' Barbu · yellow card · Mérida AD
- 21' A. Csenterics · yellow card · Mérida AD
- 24' 1–0 A. Gallar (pen.) · Lugo
- 32' 2–0 Chiqui · goal · assist A. Ulloa · Lugo
- 38' A. Godoy · yellow card · Lugo
- 43' Gonzalez Nacho · yellow card · Mérida AD
- 45+3' S. Hallsson · yellow card · Mérida AD
- 56' R. Beneit · yellow card · Mérida AD
- 64' J. Lopez · yellow card · Mérida AD
- 77' 2–1 S. Hallsson · goal · assist D. Sandoval · Mérida AD
- 86' G. Almeida · yellow card · Mérida AD
- 90+1' A. Costa · yellow card · Lugo
What the market said before kick-off
- Lugo win 44% happened
- Draw 27% did not happen
- Mérida AD win 29% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Fair price at kick-off (Pinnacle's closing price, margin removed)
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chance | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Fair odds | 2.27 | 3.66 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle odds | 2.13 | 3.31 | 3.18 |
For this competition we show the market's fair price only. These matches are not part of our track record, value flags or experiments, and we do not run our own model on them or compare bookmakers here.
Match context
Lugo averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Mérida AD averaged 2.2 and 1.2 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Why only a fair price here
We price this competition from Pinnacle's odds alone, read from our data provider several times a day: the margin is removed and nothing is added. Our track record, value flags and experiments cover only the leagues where we also log our own predictions and compare bookmakers. Methodology
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