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Primeira Liga

Nacional vs Academico Viseu

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
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The sharp market makes Academico Viseu the most likely outcome at 39% — fair odds of 2.56. On Nacional, Tipico offers 3.10 against a fair price of 3.07, a +0.9% gap: too small to call value, so we only monitor it (Micro-edge). Recent form — Nacional: LWLLL; Academico Viseu: WWLWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · Micro-edge on 1 · Nacional: +0.9% at Tipico, under 1.5% (monitor only) · Flag recorded 02 Nov: 1 · Nacional at +0.9%

Value check Micro-edge

1 Nacional @ 3.10
Bookmaker Tipico
Price observed
Flag recorded @ 3.10 (Tipico) · recorded live, before kick-off
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.
Fair price 3.07
Tipico 3.10
Market Gap +0.9%
Edge at detection +0.9% @ 3.10 ·
Edge right now +0.9% @ 3.10 ·

The gap has held since we flagged it: both the sharp benchmark and the soft price are re-read continuously, and the edge above is computed on the current market, not on the odds we saw at detection.

Market discrepancy: Nacional (1) is priced at 3.10 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 3.07 — a +0.9% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

The gap is smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We log it for transparency, but it is not a strong signal.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

The market's two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 72%

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp now33%28%39%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded34%29%37%
Our model23%24%53%
Fair odds (as recorded) 1.40
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.77 / 3.26 / 2.57

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds now 1.40
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 3.10 / 3.50 / 2.41
Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 29 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 3.073.532.56
Pinnacle sharp 2.93 3.35 2.46
888sport 2.80 3.10 2.40
BetOnline.ag 2.86 3.25 2.40
BetVictor 2.80 3.30 2.30
Betano (UK) UK-only 2.80 3.30 2.30
Coolbet 2.85 3.50 ★ 2.35
GTbets 2.95 3.24 2.41 ★
Tipico 3.10 ★ 3.20 2.30
Show all 29 bookmakers
Betclic (FR) 2.82 3.28 2.17
Betfred (UK) UK-only 2.75 3.30 2.30
Betsson 2.95 3.20 2.32
Betway UK-only 2.75 3.30 2.38
BoyleSports UK-only 2.75 3.20 2.30
Casumo UK-only 2.85 3.40 2.38
Coral UK-only 2.90 3.40 2.40
Grosvenor UK-only 2.85 3.40 2.38
Ladbrokes UK-only 2.90 3.30 2.37
LeoVegas (SE) 2.70 3.25 2.28
LiveScore Bet UK-only 2.75 3.30 2.30
Marathonbet 2.94 3.25 2.34
Nordic Bet 2.95 3.20 2.32
PMU (FR) 2.70 3.20 2.25
Unibet (FR) 2.80 3.30 2.10
Unibet (NL) 2.75 3.25 2.28
Unibet (SE) 2.75 3.25 2.28
Virgin Bet UK-only 2.85 3.40 2.38
William Hill 2.80 3.10 2.40
Winamax (DE) 2.70 3.30 2.20
Winamax (FR) 2.70 3.30 2.20

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 76% fair 1.32 best 1.31 · Betano 24% fair 4.09 best 3.75 · Bet365
2.5 49% fair 2.04 best 1.97 · 1xBet 51% fair 1.96 best 1.95 · Bet365
3.5 27% fair 3.72 best 3.30 · BetVictor 73% fair 1.37 best 1.35 · Betano
All lines (8)
Line OverUnder
1.5 76% fair 1.32 best 1.31 · Betano 24% fair 4.09 best 3.75 · Bet365
2 1.50 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet 2.98 fair best 2.77 · Betano
2.25 1.77 fair best 1.71 · 1xBet 2.30 fair best 2.13 · 1xBet
2.5 49% fair 2.04 best 1.97 · 1xBet 51% fair 1.96 best 1.95 · Bet365
2.75 2.34 fair best 2.23 · 1xBet 1.75 fair best 1.72 · 1xBet
3 2.89 fair best 2.62 · 1xBet 1.53 fair best 1.52 · Betano
3.5 27% fair 3.72 best 3.30 · BetVictor 73% fair 1.37 best 1.35 · Betano
4.5 12% fair 8.22 best 7.00 · BetVictor 88% fair 1.14 best 1.13 · Betano

Double chance
1X12X2
61% fair 1.64 best 1.60 · 1xBet 72% fair 1.40 best 1.35 · 1xBet 67% fair 1.48 best 1.42 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line NacionalAcademico Viseu
−0.5 32% fair 3.17 best 2.92 · Betano 68% fair 1.46 best 1.44 · Betano
−0.25 2.67 fair best 2.49 · 1xBet 1.60 fair best 1.53 · 1xBet
0 2.20 fair best 2.18 · 1xBet 1.83 fair best 1.75 · 1xBet
+0.25 1.82 fair best 1.83 · 1xBet 2.21 fair best 2.06 · 1xBet
+0.5 62% fair 1.62 best 1.62 · Betano 38% fair 2.61 best 2.35 · Betano
All lines (10)
Line NacionalAcademico Viseu
−1 6.26 fair best 5.08 · 1xBet 1.19 fair best 1.17 · Bet365
−0.75 4.11 fair best 3.46 · 1xBet 1.32 fair best 1.30 · Bet365
−0.5 32% fair 3.17 best 2.92 · Betano 68% fair 1.46 best 1.44 · Betano
−0.25 2.67 fair best 2.49 · 1xBet 1.60 fair best 1.53 · 1xBet
0 2.20 fair best 2.18 · 1xBet 1.83 fair best 1.75 · 1xBet
+0.25 1.82 fair best 1.83 · 1xBet 2.21 fair best 2.06 · 1xBet
+0.5 62% fair 1.62 best 1.62 · Betano 38% fair 2.61 best 2.35 · Betano
+0.75 1.44 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet 3.26 fair best 2.75 · 1xBet
+1 1.28 fair best 1.28 · 1xBet 4.61 fair best 3.80 · BetVictor
+1.25 1.25 fair best 1.23 · Bet365 4.94 fair best 4.10 · Bet365

Goals by team

Nacional goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 36% fair 2.81 best 2.60 · BetVictor 64% fair 1.55 best 1.50 · Bet365
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 75% fair 1.34 best 1.34 · Betano 25% fair 3.93 best 3.25 · Bet365
1.5 36% fair 2.81 best 2.60 · BetVictor 64% fair 1.55 best 1.50 · Bet365

Academico Viseu goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 39% fair 2.54 best 2.25 · BetVictor 61% fair 1.65 best 1.63 · Marathonbet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 78% fair 1.29 best 1.27 · Betano 22% fair 4.47 best 3.75 · Marathonbet
1.5 39% fair 2.54 best 2.25 · BetVictor 61% fair 1.65 best 1.63 · Marathonbet

First half

First-half result

1X2
27% fair 3.76 best 3.60 · 1xBet 43% fair 2.34 best 2.20 · William Hill 31% fair 3.26 best 3.00 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 71% fair 1.42 best 1.44 · Betano 29% fair 3.39 best 2.90 · William Hill
1 1.94 fair best 1.93 · Betano 2.06 fair best 1.90 · SBO
1.5 31% fair 3.20 best 2.87 · Betano 69% fair 1.45 best 1.42 · Betano
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.5 71% fair 1.42 best 1.44 · Betano 29% fair 3.39 best 2.90 · William Hill
0.75 1.58 fair best 1.53 · BetVictor 2.72 fair best 2.35 · 1xBet
1 1.94 fair best 1.93 · Betano 2.06 fair best 1.90 · SBO
1.25 2.56 fair best 2.24 · BetVictor 1.64 fair best 1.56 · 1xBet
1.5 31% fair 3.20 best 2.87 · Betano 69% fair 1.45 best 1.42 · Betano

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–113.5%fair 7.40
  2. 0–18.8%fair 11.31
  3. 1–28.6%fair 11.61
  4. 0–08.3%fair 12.08
  5. 1–07.8%fair 12.75
  6. 2–17.7%fair 12.92

Total goals

  • 08%
  • 117%
  • 226%
  • 322%
  • 4+27%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Nacional at home, Academico Viseu away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesNacionalAcademico Viseu
Goals scored per game 0.80 (1.20) 1.30 (1.70)
Goals conceded per game 1.80 (1.30) 1.10 (1.00)
Over 2.5 goals 40% (40%) 60% (50%)
Both teams scored 30% (30%) 50% (40%)
Clean sheets 20% (50%) 20% (50%)
Failed to score 50% (20%) 30% (20%)
xG for / against per game 0.71 / 1.39 1.00 / 1.58
Corners for / against per game 4.11 / 5.33 2.78 / 5.44
Cards per game 1.33 2.67

Over 2.5 goals: Nacional in 40% and Academico Viseu in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 49% for this match.

From 10 matches for Nacional and 10 for Academico Viseu. xG, corners and cards: 9 and 9 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Nacional averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Academico Viseu averaged 1.6 and 0.8 over 5.

Since opening around 2.77, the sharp market price on Nacional has drifted to 2.93 — the market has moved against this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Academico Viseu has won its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Academico Viseu here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Nacional
L W L L L
avg 0.6 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)
Academico Viseu
W W L W W
avg 1.6 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Value lifecycle Value still active

Detected ·
1 Nacional · soft 3.10 (Tipico) · fair 3.07 · edge +0.9%
Opening sharp
2.77
Current Value still active
soft 3.10 · sharp 2.93 · fair 3.07 · edge +0.9%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.33
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Nacional
Odds when flagged 3.10
Fair odds 3.07
Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending
Value CLV —
Profit (units) —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 6d23bb498a2b2aea

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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