Premier League Sun, 08 Nov 2026 · 16:30 UTC

Manchester United vs Aston Villa

Fair price as of 22:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 16:05 UTC
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Most likely: Manchester United 43%
Over 2.5 goals: 61%
Most likely score 1–1 (11.5%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Manchester United the most likely outcome at 43% — fair odds of 2.34. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no price here worth taking. Recent form — Manchester United: LLLDL; Aston Villa: DLWWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value at the current price · Flag recorded 01 Nov: 1 · Manchester United at +0.5%

Value check

No value

Edge at detection +0.5% @ 2.32 · 01 Nov

Edge right now No value at the current price 1 hour ago

We flagged +0.5% on 1 on 01 Nov. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

Betting on Manchester United anyway? The best price we see is 2.33 at Unibet (NL), -0.2% against the fair odds of 2.34. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

The market's two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 75%

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	43%	25%	32%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	43%	25%	33%
Our model	31%	24%	46%

Fair odds (as recorded) 1.33

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.26 / 3.82 / 2.89

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 1 hour ago

Fair odds now 1.34

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 2.33 / 3.94 / 3.02

Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 42 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	2.34	3.94	3.14
Pinnacle sharp	2.28	3.79	3.04
1xBet	2.32	3.94 ★	3.02 ★
888sport	2.20	3.60	2.88
BetAnything	2.23	3.63	2.97
BetOnline.ag	2.24	3.69	3.00
BetVictor	2.15	3.70	2.90
Unibet (NL)	2.33 ★	3.80	3.00
Unibet (SE)	2.33 ★	3.80	3.00

Show all 42 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	2.36	3.80	3.10
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	2.36	3.80	3.10
Matchbook exchange	2.36	3.80	3.10
Smarkets exchange	2.32	3.75	3.05
Betano (UK) UK-only	2.15	3.70	2.90
Betclic (FR)	2.12	3.47	2.80
Betfred (UK) UK-only	2.25	3.75	2.88
Betsson	2.29	3.62	2.95
Betway UK-only	2.15	3.75	2.80
BoyleSports UK-only	2.20	3.60	2.90
Casumo UK-only	2.28	3.65	2.95
Codere (IT)	2.29	3.55	2.95
Coolbet	2.32	3.72	2.94
Coral UK-only	2.25	3.60	3.00
Everygame	2.20	3.60	2.85
GTbets	2.26	3.71	2.97
Grosvenor UK-only	2.25	3.60	2.90
Ladbrokes UK-only	2.25	3.60	2.90
LeoVegas UK-only	2.25	3.55	2.85
LeoVegas (SE)	2.28	3.65	2.90
LiveScore Bet UK-only	2.23	3.55	2.85
Marathonbet	2.26	3.84	2.94
MyBookie.ag	2.23	3.55	2.85
Nordic Bet	2.28	3.60	2.95
PMU (FR)	2.18	3.45	2.75
Paddy Power UK-only	2.25	3.60	2.90
Sky Bet UK-only	2.25	3.60	2.90
Tipico	2.20	3.70	3.00
Unibet (FR)	2.05	3.30	2.80
Unibet (UK) UK-only	2.25	3.60	2.90
Virgin Bet UK-only	2.23	3.55	2.85
William Hill	2.25	3.70	2.88
Winamax (DE)	2.15	3.75	2.85
Winamax (FR)	2.10	3.65	2.75

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 16:33 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	61% fair 1.65 best 1.64 · 1xBet	39% fair 2.55 best 2.47 · 1xBet
3.5	38% fair 2.60 best 2.50 · Bet365	62% fair 1.63 best 1.57 · Marathonbet

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
2	1.28 fair best 1.27 · 1xBet	4.61 fair best 3.85 · 1xBet
2.25	1.46 fair best 1.41 · BetVictor	3.18 fair best 2.81 · 1xBet
2.5	61% fair 1.65 best 1.64 · 1xBet	39% fair 2.55 best 2.47 · 1xBet
2.75	1.79 fair best 1.72 · 1xBet	2.26 fair best 2.14 · 1xBet
3	2.02 fair best 1.95 · Betano	1.98 fair best 1.92 · 1xBet
3.25	2.31 fair best 2.24 · 1xBet	1.76 fair best 1.76 · 1xBet
3.5	38% fair 2.60 best 2.50 · Bet365	62% fair 1.63 best 1.57 · Marathonbet
3.75	3.12 fair best 2.84 · 1xBet	1.47 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet
4	4.05 fair best 3.45 · 1xBet	1.33 fair best 1.30 · 1xBet

Double chance

1X	12	X2
68% fair 1.47 best 1.44 · 1xBet	75% fair 1.34 best 1.30 · 1xBet	57% fair 1.75 best 1.68 · 1xBet

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Manchester United	Aston Villa
−0.75	2.76 fair best 2.53 · 1xBet	1.57 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet
−0.5	43% fair 2.34 best 2.22 · Betano	57% fair 1.75 best 1.70 · Betano
−0.25	2.04 fair best 1.95 · 1xBet	1.96 fair best 1.90 · Bet365
0	1.74 fair best 1.75 · 1xBet	2.36 fair best 2.25 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.57 fair best 1.59 · 1xBet	2.76 fair best 2.59 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Manchester United	Aston Villa
−1.25	4.07 fair best 3.55 · Bet365	1.33 fair best 1.27 · Bet365
−1	3.58 fair best 3.35 · Betano	1.39 fair best 1.36 · 1xBet
−0.75	2.76 fair best 2.53 · 1xBet	1.57 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet
−0.5	43% fair 2.34 best 2.22 · Betano	57% fair 1.75 best 1.70 · Betano
−0.25	2.04 fair best 1.95 · 1xBet	1.96 fair best 1.90 · Bet365
0	1.74 fair best 1.75 · 1xBet	2.36 fair best 2.25 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.57 fair best 1.59 · 1xBet	2.76 fair best 2.59 · 1xBet
+0.5	69% fair 1.45 best 1.44 · Betano	31% fair 3.20 best 2.92 · Betano
+0.75	1.33 fair best 1.31 · 1xBet	4.06 fair best 3.55 · Bet365

Goals by team

Manchester United goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	51% fair 1.97 best 1.86 · 1xBet	49% fair 2.03 best 1.94 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	51% fair 1.97 best 1.86 · 1xBet	49% fair 2.03 best 1.94 · 1xBet
2.5	23% fair 4.42 best 3.80 · BetVictor	77% fair 1.29 best 1.28 · 1xBet

Aston Villa goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	42% fair 2.40 best 2.20 · Bet365	58% fair 1.71 best 1.71 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78% fair 1.28 best 1.25 · Bet365	22% fair 4.55 best 3.80 · 1xBet
1.5	42% fair 2.40 best 2.20 · Bet365	58% fair 1.71 best 1.71 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
34% fair 2.93 best 2.75 · Bet365	39% fair 2.59 best 2.40 · William Hill	27% fair 3.66 best 3.45 · Betano

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	2.05 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet	1.95 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet
1.5	40% fair 2.51 best 2.35 · Betano	60% fair 1.66 best 1.64 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.40 fair best 1.38 · BetVictor	3.49 fair best 3.01 · 1xBet
1	1.59 fair best 1.60 · Betano	2.68 fair best 2.48 · 1xBet
1.25	2.05 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet	1.95 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet
1.5	40% fair 2.51 best 2.35 · Betano	60% fair 1.66 best 1.64 · 1xBet
1.75	3.24 fair best 2.73 · 1xBet	1.45 fair best 1.42 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–111.5%fair 8.67
2–19.0%fair 11.12
1–27.6%fair 13.08
2–26.5%fair 15.40
1–06.4%fair 15.65
2–06.2%fair 16.05

Total goals

05%
112%
222%
322%
4+38%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Manchester United at home, Aston Villa away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Manchester United	Aston Villa
Goals scored per game	1.00 (2.10)	2.20 (1.70)
Goals conceded per game	1.80 (1.70)	1.30 (1.50)
Over 2.5 goals	40% (80%)	80% (80%)
Both teams scored	50% (70%)	70% (50%)
Clean sheets	10% (10%)	20% (30%)
Failed to score	40% (20%)	10% (30%)
xG for / against per game	1.12 / 1.80	1.71 / 1.76
Corners for / against per game	5.80 / 3.60	5.30 / 5.30
Cards per game	2.20	1.90

Over 2.5 goals: Manchester United in 40% and Aston Villa in 80% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 61% for this match.

From 10 matches for Manchester United and 10 for Aston Villa. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Manchester United averaged 0.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Aston Villa averaged 1.4 and 1.2 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Manchester United has lost its last 3 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Manchester United here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Manchester United

L L L D L

avg 0.4 scored · 2.4 conceded (last 5)

Aston Villa

D L W W W

avg 1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

15 Mar 2026 Manchester United 3–1 Aston Villa

21 Dec 2025 Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester United

25 May 2025 Manchester United 2–0 Aston Villa

06 Oct 2024 Aston Villa 0–0 Manchester United

11 Feb 2024 Aston Villa 1–2 Manchester United

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Value lifecycle Value expired

Detected · Sun, 01 Nov · 20:00 UTC

1 Manchester United · soft 2.32 (1xBet) · fair 2.31 · edge +0.5%

Opening sharp

2.24

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Sun, 01 Nov 2026 · 06:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.27

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Manchester United

Odds when flagged 2.32

Fair odds 2.31

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 1f448581629b1e67

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit