England

Premier League predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Premier League fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated at 19:44 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Fri · 20:00 UTC	EvertonCoventry	57% 1.76 fair 1.75	23% 4.16 fair 4.36	20% 4.93 fair 4.99	No value
Sat · 12:30 UTC	LeedsTottenham	37% 2.63 fair 2.68	28% 3.62 fair 3.54	34% 2.86 fair 2.90	No value
Sat · 15:00 UTC	ArsenalHull City	86% 1.17 fair 1.16	10% 9.00 fair 10.31	4% 21.00 fair 23.84	Not re-checked
Sat · 15:00 UTC	FulhamNewcastle	44% 2.25 fair 2.27	26% 3.84 fair 3.86	30% 3.35 fair 3.32	Not re-checked
Sat · 17:30 UTC	Nottingham ForestManchester City	20% 4.90 fair 5.09	23% 4.37 fair 4.36	57% 1.73 fair 1.74	No value
Sun · 14:00 UTC	BrightonBrentford	50% 1.98 fair 2.01	24% 4.05 fair 4.11	26% 3.80 fair 3.86	No value
Sun · 14:00 UTC	Crystal PalaceLiverpool	18% 5.20 fair 5.44	22% 4.46 fair 4.53	60% 1.71 fair 1.68	Not re-checked
Sun · 14:00 UTC	IpswichBournemouth	25% 3.80 fair 4.03	26% 3.96 fair 3.92	50% 2.02 fair 2.01	Value expired
Sun · 14:00 UTC	SunderlandChelsea	27% 3.71 fair 3.74	26% 3.82 fair 3.92	48% 2.07 fair 2.10	Value expired
Sun · 16:30 UTC	Manchester UnitedAston Villa	43% 2.33 fair 2.32	25% 3.94 fair 4.04	32% 3.02 fair 3.12	Not re-checked

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
02 Nov	Newcastle – Everton	0–1	—
01 Nov	Liverpool – Arsenal	0–1	40%
31 Oct	Aston Villa – Fulham	1–1	26%
31 Oct	Tottenham – Crystal Palace	2–0	58%
31 Oct	Manchester City – Brighton	0–1	21%
31 Oct	Hull City – Ipswich	2–2	28%
31 Oct	Coventry – Sunderland	3–1	32%
31 Oct	Brentford – Nottingham Forest	2–0	45%
31 Oct	Bournemouth – Leeds	2–0	48%
31 Oct	Chelsea – Manchester United	2–0	44%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Premier League

Across the matches we priced in Premier League, the market's average 1X2 margin is 5.78%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is 1xBet at 2.08%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

1xBet → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	9	8	0	1	14	5	+9	24
2	Manchester City	9	7	0	2	20	10	+10	21
3	Brighton	9	6	1	2	24	7	+17	19
4	Chelsea	9	5	1	3	19	15	+4	16
5	Liverpool	9	4	3	2	11	9	+2	15
6	Brentford	9	3	5	1	16	9	+7	14
7	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	14	13	+1	12
8	Tottenham	9	3	3	3	10	10	+0	12
9	Aston Villa	9	3	3	3	10	13	-3	12
10	Hull City	9	2	5	2	11	10	+1	11
11	Leeds	9	2	5	2	9	8	+1	11
12	Newcastle	8	3	2	3	12	14	-2	11
13	Ipswich	9	3	2	4	14	18	-4	11
14	Everton	8	2	4	2	8	9	-1	10
15	Fulham	9	2	3	4	9	11	-2	9
16	Coventry	9	3	0	6	9	16	-7	9
17	Manchester United	9	1	4	4	10	15	-5	7
18	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	9	21	-12	7
19	Nottingham Forest	9	1	3	5	6	12	-6	6
20	Sunderland	9	1	2	6	7	17	-10	5

Top scorers — 2026/27 · updated 2 Nov 2026

#	Player	Team	Goals	Assists
1	E. Haaland	Manchester City	9	0
2	A. Isak	Liverpool	6	0
3	João Pedro	Chelsea	5	3
3	M. Rogers	Chelsea	5	1
3	N. Jackson	Aston Villa	5	0

Top scorers, assists and cards →

Team stats this season

89 matches this season: 2.72 goals per game, 47% over 2.5, 48% both teams scored. xG 2.91 per match (from 89 matches); 9.6 corners and 4.2 cards per match (from 89 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Manchester City	9	2.22	1.11	67%	56%	33%	2.11 / 1.29	9.9	1.6
Chelsea	9	2.11	1.67	67%	56%	22%	1.48 / 1.43	11.6	1.9
Ipswich	9	1.56	2.00	67%	78%	0%	1.36 / 1.94	7.8	2.1
Newcastle	8	1.50	1.75	63%	63%	25%	1.17 / 1.74	10.0	2.8
Brighton	9	2.67	0.78	56%	22%	67%	1.90 / 1.42	10.1	2.3
Brentford	9	1.78	1.00	56%	67%	33%	1.61 / 1.39	9.0	2.4
Bournemouth	9	1.56	1.44	56%	56%	33%	1.80 / 1.13	8.6	2.7
Aston Villa	9	1.11	1.44	56%	56%	22%	1.16 / 1.75	8.6	2.2
Crystal Palace	9	1.00	2.33	56%	44%	11%	1.27 / 2.09	10.2	1.7
Coventry	9	1.00	1.78	56%	33%	11%	0.95 / 1.54	8.6	1.2
Arsenal	9	1.56	0.56	44%	22%	67%	1.69 / 0.82	9.8	1.6
Hull City	9	1.22	1.11	44%	56%	33%	1.07 / 1.51	10.2	2.7
Liverpool	9	1.22	1.00	44%	33%	44%	1.44 / 1.20	9.1	2.4
Tottenham	9	1.11	1.11	33%	33%	44%	1.30 / 1.14	11.8	1.6
Manchester United	9	1.11	1.67	33%	56%	0%	1.54 / 1.65	10.2	2.3
Fulham	9	1.00	1.22	33%	56%	33%	1.55 / 1.44	10.8	2.2
Sunderland	9	0.78	1.89	33%	44%	22%	1.48 / 1.75	8.4	2.0
Nottingham Forest	9	0.67	1.33	33%	44%	11%	1.60 / 1.04	8.8	2.2
Everton	8	1.00	1.13	25%	38%	38%	1.27 / 1.47	10.9	1.9
Leeds	9	1.00	0.89	22%	56%	33%	1.29 / 1.37	8.3	1.9

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Premier League predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Premier League is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Premier League fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Premier League betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Premier League match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit