AEK Athens FC 2–3 Real Madrid
Final score · Half-time 1–1 · Latest results
At kick-off Pinnacle, with its margin removed, made Real Madrid the most likely outcome at 82%: fair odds of 1.22.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 12' 1–0 Aboubakary Koita · goal · assist Luka Jovic · AEK Athens FC
- 32' 1–1 Jude Bellingham · goal · assist Marc Cucurella · Real Madrid
- 34' Kervin Arriaga · yellow card · AEK Athens FC
- 65' Marc Cucurella · yellow card · Real Madrid
- 75' 2–1 Stavros Pilios · goal · assist Aboubakary Koita · AEK Athens FC
- 78' 2–2 Kylian Mbappé · goal · assist Denzel Dumfries · Real Madrid
- 90+2' 2–3 Federico Valverde · goal · assist Brahim Díaz · Real Madrid
- 90+5' Aboubakary Koita · red card · AEK Athens FC
Match stats
| Match stats | AEK Athens FC | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 30 | 70 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.95 | 3.40 |
| Shots | 9 | 24 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 8 |
| Corners | 0 | 7 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 1 |
| Red cards | 1 | 0 |
| Fouls | 9 | 16 |
| Offsides | 0 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 5 | 3 |
What the market said before kick-off
- AEK Athens FC win 6% did not happen
- Draw 12% did not happen
- Real Madrid win 82% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Fair price at kick-off (Pinnacle's closing price, margin removed)
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chance | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| Fair odds | 15.54 | 8.58 | 1.22 |
| Pinnacle odds | 13.75 | 7.80 | 1.21 |
Our model has no prediction for this date: the one logged for its first, provisional date stays in our record as void. This page shows the market's fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed).
Match context
AEK Athens FC averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Real Madrid averaged 3.4 and 1.2 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
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