Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 0–2 FC Vaduz
Final score · Half-time 0–1 · Latest results
No sharp market price was available for this match. Our own model made Atlètic Club d'Escaldes the most likely outcome at 43%; we made no value call without a sharp benchmark. Recent form — Atlètic Club d'Escaldes: LWWDL; FC Vaduz: LWLLW.
Starting line-ups
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 4-3-3
- Pacho Cano GK
- Adrià Gallego DF
- Marcos Blasco DF
- Chinchu DF
- Sergio Rodriguez DF
- Jota FW
- Emanoel MF
- Gemelson Vieira MF
- Juan Barragan MF
- Borja Morales Osuna FW
- Jean Luc MF
FC Vaduz 4-3-1-2
- Leon Schaffran GK
- Nicolas Hasler DF
- Niklas Lang DF
- Denis Simani DF
- Dominik Schwizer DF
- Mischa Eberhard MF
- Luca Mack MF
- Mats Hammerich MF
- Miloš Cocić FW
- Dejan Đokić FW
- Dejan Sorgić FW
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|
Other estimates
| Our model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; FC Vaduz averaged 1.6 and 1.2 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
Measured by TipsAudit
- Most accurate football prediction site? Ranked against the closing line
- 100% sure football predictions? How often favourites really win
- Accumulator tips today, with the real chance it wins
- Is Statarea accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is WinDrawWin accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is ProSoccer.gr accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Independent tipster audit: verified track records
- How to check if a tipster is legit
- Can you verify a Telegram tipster? What we found reading their tips
- Are free football prediction sites accurate? We measure them in public
- Which bookmaker has the lowest margin? Live index
- Free value bet finder for football
- What is closing line value (CLV)?
- Free football predictions dataset with closing odds (CSV)
- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included
