← All value matches › Eliteserien
Eliteserien

Start 0–1 Fredrikstad

Final score · Half-time 0–1 · All of yesterday's results

Our backtest says that, with the sharp market making Start the most likely outcome at 41% (fair odds 2.45), Coolbet offered 3.20, a gap of +1.5% above the fair price (Value flag). This was reconstructed on 26 September 2026, not recorded at the time. Recent form — Start: LWLLL; Fredrikstad: WLLLW.

After the whistle

Match stats

Match statsStartFredrikstad
Possession %4951
Expected goals (xG)1.771.57
Shots1313
Shots on target23
Corners64
Yellow cards00
Red cards00
Fouls85
Offsides21
Goalkeeper saves22
Pass accuracy %7879

What the market said before kick-off

  • Start win 49% did not happen
  • Draw 26% did not happen
  • Fredrikstad win 25% happened

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: Marius Lien, Norway · Venue: Sparebanken Sør Arena, Kristiansand

Next matches

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

Start 3-4-1-2

  1. Filip Manojlović GK
  2. Erlend Dahl Reitan DF
  3. John Olav Norheim DF
  4. Jens Berland Husebø DF
  5. Ousmane Diallo Toure MF
  6. Tom Strannegård MF
  7. Hakon Lorentzen MF
  8. Erlend Segberg MF
  9. Eirik Schulze FW
  10. Jesper Cornelius FW
  11. James Ampofo FW

Fredrikstad 4-3-3

  1. Martin Borsheim GK
  2. Daniel Eid DF
  3. Fredrik Holmé DF
  4. Ulrik Fredriksen DF
  5. Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem DF
  6. Isak Helstad Amundsen MF
  7. Samuel Leach Holm MF
  8. Oskar Øhlenschlaeger MF
  9. Gabriel Wesseh FW
  10. Henrik Langaas Skogvold FW
  11. Max Nilsson FW

Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 49 / 26 / 25% when the line-ups came out, 49 / 26 / 25% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.

In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity before kick-off Value flag

2 Fredrikstad @ 3.20
Bookmaker Coolbet
Price observed
Rule would have fired (backtest) @ 3.20 (Coolbet) · backtest — reconstructed afterwards
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price varied by country and over time.
Fair price 3.15
Coolbet 3.20
Confidence: Low
Value-bet result Won · 2 +2.20u

Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Fredrikstad (2) was priced at 3.20 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 3.15 — a +1.5% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 72%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp, recorded42%28%31%
Other estimates
Our model37%28%36%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.38
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.28 / 3.38 / 3.07
Market Gap +1.5%
Confidence Low
Model agreement Medium

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Won · 2

Value lifecycle Settled

Would have been flagged (backtest) ·
2 Fredrikstad · soft 3.20 (Coolbet) · fair 3.15 · edge +1.5%
Opening sharp
3.07
At close
3.98 · CLV -19.6%
Result
Won +2.20u Backtest

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

The last 1 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–0–1 (Start wins – draws – Fredrikstad wins).

Start scored 0.8 and conceded 2.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Fredrikstad scored 0.6 and conceded 1.6 in 5.

Since opening around 3.07, the sharp market price on Fredrikstad has drifted to 3.98 — the market has moved against this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Start
L W L L L
avg 0.8 scored · 2.2 conceded (last 5)
Fredrikstad
W L L L W
avg 0.6 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
29 May 2026 Fredrikstad 2–1 Start

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.31
Closing odds 1.32
Prediction CLV -0.9%
Result Won
Value-bet record

Backtest: reconstructed on 26 September 2026 by applying today’s rule to the prices stored before kick-off. It was not shown in this form at the time; its seal was created at the reconstruction, which for matches already played was after the match.

Value selection 2 · Fredrikstad
Odds when the rule would have fired (reconstructed) 3.20
Fair odds 3.15
Closing odds 3.98
Value CLV -19.6%
Profit (units) +2.20
Result Won
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 98cd859e3e0e0a58

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

Found this useful? Send it to a friend who bets.