Yelimay Semey 3–1 Irtysh
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Yelimay Semey the most likely outcome at 54% — fair odds of 1.84. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Yelimay Semey: DDLDD; Irtysh: WWLDL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 12' Zhan-Ali Payruz · yellow card · Yelimay Semey
- 19' Almas Tyulyubay · yellow card · Yelimay Semey
- 22' Jean Poé · yellow card · Irtysh
- 70' Hrvoje Ilić · yellow card · Yelimay Semey
- 73' I. Sviridov · goal · assist H. Ilic · Yelimay Semey
- 77' M. Mittendorfer (own goal) · Irtysh
- 80' Mamadou Mbodj · yellow card · Irtysh
- 80' A. Bakhtiyarov · goal · assist F. Placca · Yelimay Semey
- 82' Mamadou Mbodj · yellow card · Irtysh
- 82' Mamadou Mbodj · red card · Irtysh
- 90' M. Omatay · goal · assist H. Ilic · Yelimay Semey
- 90+4' Sagi Malikaydar · yellow card · Irtysh
- 90+5' Miras Omatay · yellow card · Yelimay Semey
What the market said before kick-off
- Yelimay Semey win 56% happened
- Draw 23% did not happen
- Irtysh win 21% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Yelimay Semey 3-5-2
- Ivan Konovalov GK
- Strahinja Tanasijević DF
- Higor Gabriel DF
- Maj Mittendorfer DF
- Zhan-Ali Payruz MF
- Hrvoje Ilić MF
- Almas Tyulyubay MF
- Akmal Bakhtiyarov MF
- Duván Palacios MF
- Euloge Fessou Placca FW
- Roger Murillo FW
Irtysh 4-2-3-1
- Bogdan Sarnavskyi GK
- Sagi Malikaydar DF
- Mamadou Mbodj DF
- Samuel Opeh DF
- Demiyat Slambekov DF
- Lucas Ramos MF
- Murojon Khalmatov MF
- Jean Poé MF
- David Esimbekov MF
- Zikrillo Sultaniyazov MF
- Oluwabori Falaye FW
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 56 / 23 / 21% when the line-ups came out, 56 / 23 / 21% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 54% | 24% | 21% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 54% | 27% | 20% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 1 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–1–0 (Yelimay Semey wins – draws – Irtysh wins).
Yelimay Semey scored 0.8 and conceded 1.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Irtysh scored 1.2 and conceded 1.2 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included