FC Midtjylland 1–0 Randers FC
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · All of yesterday's results
No sharp market price is available for this match. Our own model makes FC Midtjylland the most likely outcome at 70%; we make no value call without a sharp benchmark. Recent form — FC Midtjylland: WDWWL; Randers FC: LWLDL.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | FC Midtjylland | Randers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 58 | 42 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.28 | 1.03 |
| Shots | 20 | 8 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 2 |
| Corners | 10 | 5 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 12 | 26 |
| Offsides | 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 5 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78 | 70 |
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
FC Midtjylland 3-5-2
- Elías Ólafsson GK
- Philip Billing DF
- Magnus Jensen DF
- Mads Bech Sørensen DF
- Darío Osorio MF
- Rasmus Kristensen MF
- Pedro Bravo MF
- Kjell Wätjen MF
- Sofus Johannesen MF
- Stanley Iheanacho FW
- Gue-sung Cho FW
Regular starters not in the XI
- Valdemar Byskov — not in the starting XI (started 5 of the last 5)
- Franculino Djú — not in the starting XI (started 5 of the last 5)
- Martin Erlić — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
Randers FC 5-4-1
- Jannich Storch GK
- Sabil Hansen DF
- Daniel Høegh DF
- Martin Sjølstad DF
- Wessel Dammers DF
- Nikolas Dyhr DF
- Elies Mahmoud MF
- Laurits Pedersen MF
- Mike Themsen MF
- Mathias Greve MF
- Kasper Junker FW
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|
Other estimates
| Our model | 70% | 18% | 12% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 4–0–1 (FC Midtjylland wins – draws – Randers FC wins).
FC Midtjylland scored 1.6 and conceded 1.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Randers FC scored 0.6 and conceded 2.2 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
Measured by TipsAudit
- Most accurate football prediction site? Ranked against the closing line
- Is Statarea accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is ProSoccer.gr accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is FootballPredictions.net accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Independent tipster audit: verified track records
- How to check if a tipster is legit
- Can you verify a Telegram tipster? What we found reading their tips
- Are free football prediction sites accurate? We measure them in public
- Which bookmaker has the lowest margin? Live index
- Free value bet finder for football
- What is closing line value (CLV)?
- Free football predictions dataset with closing odds (CSV)
- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included