LDU de Quito 2–0 Emelec
Final score · Half-time 2–0 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes LDU de Quito the most likely outcome at 62% — fair odds of 1.61. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — LDU de Quito: DWDLW; Emelec: WDLLD.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | LDU de Quito | Emelec |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 60 | 40 |
| Shots | 14 | 13 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 2 |
| Corners | 10 | 3 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 2 |
| Red cards | 1 | 0 |
| Fouls | 10 | 9 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 3 |
| Pass accuracy % | 87 | 80 |
What the market said before kick-off
- LDU de Quito win 62% happened
- Draw 23% did not happen
- Emelec win 15% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
LDU de Quito 5-3-2
- Alexander Domínguez GK
- Yerlin Quinonez DF
- Gian Franco Allala DF
- Juan Rodríguez DF
- Luis Segovia DF
- José Carabalí DF
- Ivan Zambrano MF
- Jesús Pretell MF
- Alexander Alvarado MF
- Janner Corozo FW
- Deyverson FW
Regular starters not in the XI
- Gonzalo Valle — not in the starting XI (started 5 of the last 5)
- Ricardo Adé — not in the starting XI (started 5 of the last 5)
- Michael Estrada — not in the starting XI (started 5 of the last 5)
- Josué Cuero — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
- Fernando Cornejo — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
- Sebastián González — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
Emelec 4-2-3-1
- Eduardo Bores GK
- Luis Gomez DF
- Luis Fernando León DF
- Stalin Valencia DF
- Ignacio Guerrico DF
- Víctor Griffith MF
- Jefferson Valverde MF
- Aníbal Leguizamón MF
- Angelo Mina MF
- Luis Fragozo MF
- Ronie Carrillo FW
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 62 / 23 / 15% when the line-ups came out, 62 / 23 / 15% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 62% | 23% | 15% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 3 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–0–2 (LDU de Quito wins – draws – Emelec wins).
LDU de Quito scored 0.8 and conceded 0.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Emelec scored 0.8 and conceded 1.2 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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