Sturm Graz 1–1 Austria Lustenau
Final score · Half-time 0–1 · All of yesterday's results
No sharp market price is available for this match. Our own model makes Sturm Graz the most likely outcome at 59%; we make no value call without a sharp benchmark. Recent form — Sturm Graz: WLWLD; Austria Lustenau: WLDWD.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | Sturm Graz | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 63 | 37 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 2.07 | 0.91 |
| Shots | 13 | 17 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 6 |
| Corners | 10 | 8 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 1 |
| Fouls | 10 | 10 |
| Offsides | 3 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 5 | 2 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81 | 71 |
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|
Other estimates
| Our model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Sturm Graz scored 0.8 and conceded 0.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Austria Lustenau scored 1.6 and conceded 1.4 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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