Polonia Warszawa 2–4 Lechia Gdansk
Final score · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Polonia Warszawa was the most likely outcome at 64% (fair odds 1.57). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Polonia Warszawa: WLDWW; Lechia Gdansk: WLDLL.
After the whistle
What the market said before kick-off
- Polonia Warszawa win 60% did not happen
- Draw 20% did not happen
- Lechia Gdansk win 21% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Polonia Warszawa 4-2-3-1
- M. JeleÅ GK
- P. Olszewski DF
- M. Marcjanik DF
- J. Budnicki DF
- D. Ólafsson DF
- M. Kuusk DF
- D. Gnaase MF
- E. Terpiłowski MF
- S. Skrabb FW
- İ. Durmuş DF
- K. Tabara MF
Lechia Gdansk 4-4-2
- S. Weirauch GK
- S. Kopásek DF
- K. Łopata DF
- D. Beskorovaynyi DF
- D. Malov DF
- C. Mena MF
- T. Neugebauer MF
- T. Wójtowicz MF
- K. Dodaj FW
- J. Adkonis MF
- A. Shakh MF
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 60 / 20 / 21% when the line-ups came out, 60 / 20 / 21% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 64% | 19% | 18% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 52% | 27% | 21% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Polonia Warszawa averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Lechia Gdansk averaged 0.6 and 1.8 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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