Lyon 1–1 Le Havre
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · All of yesterday's results
No sharp market price is available for this match. Our own model makes Lyon the most likely outcome at 69%; we make no value call without a sharp benchmark. Recent form — Lyon: LWDWL; Le Havre: LWLDD.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | Lyon | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 57 | 43 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.75 | 0.69 |
| Shots | 15 | 12 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 4 |
| Corners | 5 | 5 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 7 | 16 |
| Offsides | 5 | 3 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 3 | 5 |
| Pass accuracy % | 85 | 82 |
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Lyon 4-2-3-1
- D. Greif GK
- Z. Athekame DF
- F. Bacher DF
- M. Niakhaté DF
- N. Tagliafico DF
- M. Bidstrup MF
- T. Morton MF
- E. Nuamah MF
- C. Tolisso MF
- K. Boudache MF
- L. Openda FW
Le Havre 3-4-2-1
- L. Mpasi GK
- T. Pembélé DF
- A. Seko DF
- A. Touba DF
- R. Ndiaye MF
- S. Ebonog MF
- J. Mwanga MF
- A. Richardson MF
- K. Mizuta MF
- M. Samatta FW
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|
Other estimates
| Our model | 69% | 19% | 13% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 3–1–1 (Lyon wins – draws – Le Havre wins).
Lyon scored 1.6 and conceded 1 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Le Havre scored 1.4 and conceded 1.4 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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