Başakşehir 1–1 Kasımpaşa
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · All of yesterday's results
No sharp market price is available for this match. Our own model makes Başakşehir the most likely outcome at 63%; we make no value call without a sharp benchmark. Recent form — Başakşehir: LWLDW; Kasımpaşa: WDWLD.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | Başakşehir | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 64 | 36 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.76 | 1.69 |
| Shots | 12 | 12 |
| Shots on target | 2 | 3 |
| Corners | 5 | 3 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 11 | 13 |
| Offsides | 2 | 3 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 1 |
| Pass accuracy % | 88 | 77 |
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Başakşehir 4-2-3-1
- Muhammed Şengezer GK
- Ömer Ali Şahiner DF
- Emin Bayram DF
- Jerome Opoku DF
- Christopher Operi DF
- Olivier Kemen MF
- Umut Güneş MF
- Andreas Skov Olsen MF
- Eldor Shomurodov MF
- Abbosbek Fayzullaev MF
- Umut Bozok FW
Kasımpaşa 4-2-3-1
- Andreas Gianniotis GK
- Ayberk Karapo DF
- Adem Arous DF
- Matei Ilie DF
- Cláudio Winck DF
- Elson Mendes MF
- Kerem Demirbay MF
- Ahmet Taha Dağbaşı MF
- Andri Fannar Baldursson MF
- Adrian Benedyczak MF
- Güven Yalçın FW
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|
Other estimates
| Our model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–0–0 (Başakşehir wins – draws – Kasımpaşa wins).
Başakşehir scored 1.2 and conceded 1.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Kasımpaşa scored 1.2 and conceded 1 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
Measured by TipsAudit
- Most accurate football prediction site? Ranked against the closing line
- Is Statarea accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is ProSoccer.gr accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is FootballPredictions.net accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Independent tipster audit: verified track records
- How to check if a tipster is legit
- Can you verify a Telegram tipster? What we found reading their tips
- Are free football prediction sites accurate? We measure them in public
- Which bookmaker has the lowest margin? Live index
- Free value bet finder for football
- What is closing line value (CLV)?
- Free football predictions dataset with closing odds (CSV)
- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included