Millonarios 0–0 Internacional de Bogota
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Millonarios the most likely outcome at 69% — fair odds of 1.44. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Millonarios: WDWWL; Internacional de Bogota: DDDLW.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | Millonarios | Internacional de Bogota |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 62 | 38 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.03 | 1.31 |
| Shots | 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 2 |
| Corners | 7 | 5 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 9 | 13 |
| Offsides | 1 | 3 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 6 |
| Pass accuracy % | 86 | 78 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Millonarios win 66% did not happen
- Draw 21% happened
- Internacional de Bogota win 13% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Millonarios 5-3-2
- Javier Burrai GK
- Jhonier Guerrero DF
- Andrés Llinás DF
- Sergio Mosquera DF
- Stiven Barreiro DF
- Sebastián Valencia DF
- Mateo García MF
- Rodrigo Ureña MF
- Francisco Chaverra MF
- Leonardo Castro FW
- Daniel Ruiz FW
Internacional de Bogota 3-4-2-1
- Wuilker Faríñez GK
- Joan Castro DF
- Carlos Vivas DF
- Mateo Rodas DF
- Ronaldo Julio MF
- Larry Vásquez MF
- Dewar Victoria MF
- Yulián Gómez MF
- Cristián Dájome FW
- Fabricio Sanguinetti FW
- Diego Duarte FW
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 66 / 21 / 13% when the line-ups came out, 66 / 21 / 13% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 69% | 20% | 11% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 1 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–0–1 (Millonarios wins – draws – Internacional de Bogota wins).
Millonarios scored 1.2 and conceded 0.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Internacional de Bogota scored 1.2 and conceded 1.2 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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