Spartak Varna 1–1 CSKA Sofia
Final score · Half-time 1–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes CSKA Sofia the most likely outcome at 62% — fair odds of 1.61. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Spartak Varna: DLLLW; CSKA Sofia: WLLWL.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | Spartak Varna | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 31 | 69 |
| Shots | 4 | 27 |
| Shots on target | 2 | 8 |
| Corners | 2 | 10 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Spartak Varna win 15% did not happen
- Draw 22% happened
- CSKA Sofia win 63% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1
- P. Iliev GK
- David Valverde DF
- A. Granchov DF
- J. Tshitoku DF
- B. Ivanov DF
- S. Major MF
- José Ricardo Gomes Sousa MF
- A. Ivanov FW
- Boubacar Hanne FW
- J. Lopes FW
- A. Ahmedov FW
Regular starters not in the XI
- Tsvetoslav Marinov — not in the starting XI (started 5 of the last 5)
CSKA Sofia 4-1-3-2
- F. Lapoukhov GK
- J. Gbamin MF
- I. Solet Bomawoko MF
- Facundo Santiago Rodríguez DF
- A. Yordanov MF
- P. Panayotov MF
- M. Brahimi FW
- S. Sensi MF
- M. Ebong MF
- J. Zwarts FW
- I. Pittas FW
Regular starters not in the XI
- Bruno Jordão — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 15 / 22 / 63% when the line-ups came out, 15 / 22 / 63% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 16% | 22% | 62% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 20% | 25% | 55% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–1–4 (Spartak Varna wins – draws – CSKA Sofia wins).
Spartak Varna scored 0.8 and conceded 2.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; CSKA Sofia scored 1.8 and conceded 1.8 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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