Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · All of yesterday's results
Our backtest says that, with the sharp market making Aston Villa the most likely outcome at 46% (fair odds 2.19), Matchbook offered 2.22, a gap of +1.2% above the fair price (Micro-edge). This was reconstructed on 26 September 2026, not recorded at the time. Recent form — Aston Villa: WDLLW; Nottingham Forest: DDLLD.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 54 | 46 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.82 | 2.28 |
| Shots | 7 | 22 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 7 |
| Corners | 6 | 1 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 5 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 11 | 16 |
| Offsides | 0 | 4 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 5 | 5 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82 | 86 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Aston Villa win 43% did not happen
- Draw 28% did not happen
- Nottingham Forest win 29% happened
- Over 2.5 goals 51% happened
- Both teams score 58% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
- Z. Suzuki GK
- A. Wan-Bissaka DF
- V. Lindelöf DF
- Pau Torres DF
- I. Maatsen DF
- B. Kamara MF
- R. Barkley MF
- J. McGinn MF
- E. Buendía MF
- George Hemmings MF
- N. Jackson FW
Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1
- M. Sels GK
- O. Aina DF
- O. Diomande DF
- Murillo DF
- D. Muñoz MF
- X. Schlager MF
- J. McAtee MF
- N. Williams MF
- D. Ndoye MF
- M. Gibbs-White MF
- L. Delap FW
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 44 / 27 / 29% when the line-ups came out, 43 / 28 / 29% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value opportunity before kick-off Micro-edge
Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Aston Villa (1) was priced at 2.22 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.19 — a +1.2% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.
The gap was smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We logged it for transparency, but it was not a strong signal.
A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.
Most likely result
When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 48% | 26% | 26% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 59% | 21% | 20% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.
Value lifecycle Settled
“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.
Match context
The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 3–1–1 (Aston Villa wins – draws – Nottingham Forest wins).
Aston Villa scored 1 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Nottingham Forest scored 0.6 and conceded 1.2 in 5.
Since opening around 2.01, the sharp market price on Aston Villa has drifted to 2.35 — the market has moved against this outcome.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
Backtest: reconstructed on 26 September 2026 by applying today’s rule to the prices stored before kick-off. It was not shown in this form at the time; its seal was created at the reconstruction, which for matches already played was after the match.
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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