Sirius 2–0 Degerfors IF
Final score · Half-time 2–0 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Sirius the most likely outcome at 68% — fair odds of 1.47. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Sirius: WLLLD; Degerfors IF: WLLWW.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | Sirius | Degerfors IF |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 42 | 58 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 | 1.71 |
| Shots | 16 | 15 |
| Shots on target | 8 | 7 |
| Corners | 7 | 7 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 15 | 7 |
| Offsides | 2 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 7 | 7 |
| Pass accuracy % | 85 | 89 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Sirius win 67% happened
- Draw 20% did not happen
- Degerfors IF win 13% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Sirius 4-3-3
- D. Celic GK
- H. Castegren DF
- Mohamed Soumah DF
- T. Anker DF
- O. Krusnell DF
- V. Svensson MF
- M. Heier MF
- M. Lindberg MF
- Z. Vancsa FW
- J. Uneken FW
- I. Bjerkebo FW
Degerfors IF 4-2-3-1
- M. Igonen GK
- S. Ohlsson DF
- Ahmad Faqa DF
- Nikolai Skuseth DF
- D. Sundgren DF
- B. Hussein MF
- K. Karlsson MF
- R. Dzabic MF
- D. Vukojević MF
- N. Milleskog MF
- K. Boutera FW
Regular starters not in the XI
- S. Diatara — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
- E. Barsoum — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 67 / 19 / 14% when the line-ups came out, 67 / 20 / 13% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 68% | 19% | 13% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 66% | 21% | 14% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 3–1–1 (Sirius wins – draws – Degerfors IF wins).
Sirius scored 1.2 and conceded 2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Degerfors IF scored 1.4 and conceded 1 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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