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Allsvenskan predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Allsvenskan fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated between 21:33 UTC and 21:34 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Tue · 18:00 UTC	SiriusHalmstad	77% 1.33 fair 1.30 +2.0%	14% 6.25 fair 7.32	10% 10.50 fair 10.39	Value flag
Fri · 18:00 UTC	Hammarby FFIF Elfsborg	69% 1.45 fair 1.45	18% 5.20 fair 5.54	13% 8.00 fair 7.79	Value expired
Sat · 16:30 UTC	Orgryte ISVasteras SK FK	33% 3.25 fair 3.01 +7.8%	25% 3.75 fair 4.02	42% 2.33 fair 2.38	Strong value
Sat · 16:30 UTC	Degerfors IFGais	32% 3.45 fair 3.15 +9.6%	24% 3.70 fair 4.19	44% 2.33 fair 2.26	Strong value
Sun · 13:00 UTC	IFK GoteborgMalmo FF	40% 2.55 fair 2.51 +1.4%	27% 3.70 fair 3.75	34% 2.88 fair 2.98	Micro-edge
Sun · 15:30 UTC	IF BrommapojkarnaMjallby AIF	37% 2.90 fair 2.69 +7.8%	27% 3.65 fair 3.67	36% 2.68 fair 2.81	Strong value
Sun · 15:30 UTC	AIK StockholmBK Hacken	23% 4.16 fair 4.37	23% 4.20 fair 4.43	55% 1.93 fair 1.83 +5.3%	Strong value

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
02 Nov	Mjallby AIF – Kalmar FF	0–0	29%
02 Nov	Gais – AIK Stockholm	2–1	53%
01 Nov	Vasteras SK FK – IF Brommapojkarna	1–0	52%
01 Nov	IF Elfsborg – Orgryte IS	2–1	74%
01 Nov	BK Hacken – IFK Goteborg	1–0	58%
01 Nov	Malmo FF – Hammarby FF	1–2	58%
01 Nov	Djurgardens IF – Degerfors IF	2–1	76%
29 Oct	Orgryte IS – Mjallby AIF	1–2	44%
29 Oct	Kalmar FF – Gais	0–1	30%
29 Oct	Hammarby FF – Sirius	2–0	68%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Allsvenskan

Across the matches we priced in Allsvenskan, the market's average 1X2 margin is 8.34%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Unibet (SE) at 3.07%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Unibet (SE) → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 20:58 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Hammarby FF	27	17	4	6	56	22	+34	55
2	Sirius	26	17	4	5	56	34	+22	55
3	Djurgardens IF	27	16	4	7	55	25	+30	52
4	BK Hacken	27	13	10	4	48	30	+18	49
5	IF Elfsborg	27	12	10	5	41	27	+14	46
6	Vasteras SK FK	27	13	5	9	40	38	+2	44
7	Malmo FF	27	12	4	11	42	36	+6	40
8	AIK Stockholm	27	10	8	9	43	47	-4	38
9	IFK Goteborg	27	10	8	9	36	46	-10	38
10	Gais	27	10	7	10	34	27	+7	37
11	IF Brommapojkarna	27	9	7	11	39	44	-5	34
12	Mjallby AIF	27	6	9	12	30	43	-13	27
13	Kalmar FF	27	6	5	16	23	42	-19	23
14	Degerfors IF	27	5	5	17	22	46	-24	20
15	Orgryte IS	27	4	7	16	33	60	-27	19
16	Halmstad	26	4	5	17	18	49	-31	17

Team stats this season

213 matches this season: 2.88 goals per game, 54% over 2.5, 51% both teams scored. xG 3.14 per match (from 138 matches); 10.4 corners and 3.4 cards per match (from 213 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Sirius	26	2.15	1.31	69%	58%	31%	2.05 / 1.30	11.5	1.4
AIK Stockholm	26	1.62	1.73	69%	73%	15%	1.45 / 2.29	10.3	2.3
IF Brommapojkarna	27	1.44	1.63	67%	63%	15%	1.41 / 1.77	10.6	1.6
Orgryte IS	27	1.22	2.22	63%	63%	11%	1.12 / 2.29	10.0	1.4
Malmo FF	27	1.56	1.33	59%	52%	37%	1.78 / 1.51	10.4	2.2
Djurgardens IF	27	2.04	0.93	56%	44%	48%	1.89 / 0.84	9.6	1.4
BK Hacken	27	1.78	1.11	52%	48%	48%	1.92 / 1.15	11.3	1.9
IF Elfsborg	27	1.52	1.00	52%	63%	33%	1.55 / 1.17	9.9	1.4
Vasteras SK FK	27	1.48	1.41	52%	41%	37%	1.52 / 1.47	9.8	1.4
Kalmar FF	26	0.88	1.62	50%	39%	12%	1.40 / 1.28	10.5	0.9
Hammarby FF	27	2.07	0.81	48%	44%	44%	2.50 / 1.05	9.6	1.4
IFK Goteborg	27	1.33	1.70	48%	59%	15%	1.59 / 1.46	11.9	2.0
Degerfors IF	27	0.81	1.70	48%	41%	11%	1.08 / 1.74	10.1	2.0
Mjallby AIF	26	1.15	1.65	46%	50%	15%	1.49 / 1.74	9.3	2.0
Halmstad	26	0.69	1.88	42%	46%	8%	0.87 / 2.29	11.4	1.4
Gais	26	1.23	1.00	35%	35%	42%	1.62 / 1.49	9.9	2.4

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Djurgardens IF	1.2	82.1%	0%
2	Hammarby FF	3.2	7.1%	0%
3	Sirius	3.3	8.5%	0%
4	IFK Goteborg	5.2	1.2%	0%
5	Vasteras SK FK	5.9	0.3%	0%
6	AIK Stockholm	6.2	0.2%	0%
7	Malmo FF	6.5	0.4%	0%
8	IF Elfsborg	7	0.1%	0%
9	BK Hacken	7.9	0.1%	0%
10	Gais	9.6	0%	0.4%
11	IF Brommapojkarna	10.7	0%	1.5%
12	Mjallby AIF	13.4	0%	27.2%
13	Kalmar FF	13.5	0%	29.8%
14	Degerfors IF	13.6	0%	31.5%
15	Orgryte IS	14.3	0%	50.3%
16	Halmstad	14.5	0%	59.3%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Allsvenskan predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Allsvenskan is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Allsvenskan fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Allsvenskan betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Allsvenskan match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit