Landskrona BoIS 4–0 GIF Sundsvall
Final score · Half-time 3–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Landskrona BoIS was the most likely outcome at 62% (fair odds 1.60). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Landskrona BoIS: LWDDD; GIF Sundsvall: LWWLD.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | Landskrona BoIS | GIF Sundsvall |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 62 | 38 |
| Shots | 21 | 2 |
| Shots on target | 11 | 1 |
| Corners | 9 | 2 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 0 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Landskrona BoIS win 70% happened
- Draw 18% did not happen
- GIF Sundsvall win 12% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Landskrona BoIS 4-3-3
- M. Pettersson GK
- G. Bruzelius DF
- A. Murbeck DF
- T. Karlsson MF
- G. Westström DF
- A. Egnell MF
- A. Pérez DF
- Z. Loukili MF
- K. Jensen MF
- Mathias Andreasen FW
- C. Capotondi MF
GIF Sundsvall 4-4-2
- J. Olsson GK
- E. Carrick DF
- L. Forsberg DF
- J. Hedenquist DF
- A. Atlee Manneh DF
- E. Hansson MF
- L. Nåvik MF
- A. Demirol MF
- T. Kagayama FW
- C. Björk FW
- Shalom Ekong FW
Regular starters not in the XI
- Eron Gojani — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 70 / 18 / 12% when the line-ups came out, 70 / 18 / 12% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 62% | 21% | 16% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 61% | 22% | 17% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Landskrona BoIS averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; GIF Sundsvall averaged 0.6 and 1.0 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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