Shakhtar Donetsk 3–0 LNZ Cherkasy
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Shakhtar Donetsk the most likely outcome at 59% — fair odds of 1.70. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Shakhtar Donetsk: WDWLW; LNZ Cherkasy: WDLWL.
After the whistle
What the market said before kick-off
- Shakhtar Donetsk win 67% happened
- Draw 22% did not happen
- LNZ Cherkasy win 11% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Shakhtar Donetsk 4-5-1
- Dmytro Riznyk GK
- Oleksandr Karavaiev DF
- Valerii Bondar DF
- Mykola Matvienko DF
- Pedro Henrique DF
- Alisson Santana MF
- Marlon Gomes MF
- Oleg Ocheretko MF
- Isaque MF
- Gleiker Mendoza MF
- Lassina Traoré FW
Regular starters not in the XI
- Vinícius Tobias — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
LNZ Cherkasy 4-4-2
- Dmytro Ledvii GK
- Gennady Pasich DF
- Nazariy Muravskyi DF
- Roman Didyk DF
- Oleksandr Drambaev DF
- Denys Kuzyk DF
- Artur Ryabov MF
- Adam Yakubu MF
- Papa Ndiaga Yade MF
- Muharrem Jashari MF
- Yevhenii Pastukh MF
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 67 / 22 / 11% when the line-ups came out, 67 / 22 / 11% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 62% | 23% | 15% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 4 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–1–1 (Shakhtar Donetsk wins – draws – LNZ Cherkasy wins).
Shakhtar Donetsk scored 1.2 and conceded 0.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; LNZ Cherkasy scored 1 and conceded 1 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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