Tigres UANL 1–0 Puebla
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Tigres UANL the most likely outcome at 63% — fair odds of 1.58. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Tigres UANL: LDDDW; Puebla: DLWLW.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | Tigres UANL | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 56 | 44 |
| Shots | 13 | 10 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 1 |
| Corners | 5 | 0 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 7 | 9 |
| Offsides | 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 1 | 3 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Tigres UANL win 61% happened
- Draw 22% did not happen
- Puebla win 18% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
- N. Guzmán GK
- R. Guerrero DF
- Joaquim DF
- A. Franco DF
- M. Laínez DF
- F. Gorriarán MF
- J. Vigón MF
- D. Sánchez MF
- J. Brunetta MF
- O. Herrera MF
- G. Martínez FW
Puebla 4-2-3-1
- R. Gutiérrez GK
- J. Pachuca DF
- F. Almada DF
- J. Vargas DF
- F. Monárrez DF
- A. Organista MF
- S. Sanabria MF
- B. Garnica MF
- M. Tomás MF
- C. Baltazar MF
- I. Maestro Puch FW
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 61 / 21 / 17% when the line-ups came out, 61 / 22 / 18% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 63% | 20% | 17% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 57% | 25% | 19% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–0–1 (Tigres UANL wins – draws – Puebla wins).
Tigres UANL scored 0.6 and conceded 0.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Puebla scored 1 and conceded 1.2 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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